Aug 4, 2026 earnings call — Refining drove strong quarterly profits
Net income reached COP 6.1 trillion in Q2 2026, the highest quarterly result since the fourth quarter of 2022.
Revenue $11.7B (est $10.8B) · EPS $0.82 (est $0.86)
Key quotes
"In refining, we delivered one of our strongest quarters in recent years, achieving a record integrated throughput of 439,000 barrels per day and the refining gross margin of USD 29.8 per barrel compared with USD 12.5 per barrel in the same period last year."
"Regarding the Fuel Price Stabilization Fund, FEPC, as of June 2026, the outstanding receivable stood at COP 8 trillion."
"We feel very comfortable with what we have mentioned in terms of keeping the production target between 730,000 and 740,000 barrels per day."
Analyst Q&A 12
main projects, challenges, and priorities
Q: The analyst asked three things: what main projects and deliveries the company highlights from the past 3–4 years; which projects face the biggest challenges; and what the company’s key priorities and main projects should be going forward.
A: Management highlighted successful exploration results (Copa Sul and Sandia-1), more self-generation (solar plants) supplying several fields, and production growth plus secondary and tertiary recovery work. They said the biggest challenges are environmental compliance and technical/efficiency issues. For the future they will focus on traditional businesses (exploration, production, refining, transport) and on light crude and nonconventional pilots under legal and capital discipline.
"As part of the main success we have is the exploration rate that we have achieved in the last few years." — Juan Carlos Parra (CEO)
production outlook and FEPC collections
Q (Bruno Montanari): The analyst asked how to bridge second half 2026 production to meet full-year guidance and whether El Niño could disrupt supplies; and asked about the FEPC accrual (COP 8 trillion to COP 12 trillion) timing under the new government and the Brent/FX assumptions behind that range.
A: Management said second-quarter disruptions (blockades and workover stoppages) reduced production, but blockades are lifted and they remain comfortable with the 730,000–740,000 barrels per day target, with actions to recover volumes and ensure electric reliability. On FEPC, they said accrual depends on Brent, TRM and crack spreads; they used Brent 2026 at between $84 and $90 per barrel and TRM ranges to project accruals and expect to wait for new government policy guidance.
"The calculations for this year are made with a Brent projection range for 2026 that is around $84 -- between $84 and $90 per barrel." — Alfonso Camilo Munoz (CFO)
talks with new government about fuel policy
Q (Andres Cardona): The analyst asked what interactions they have had with the newly elected government and what significant changes for Ecopetrol and the sector they perceive so far.
A: Management said they have not really had a dialogue yet with the new government; they have only seen general declarations about fuel price policy and the need to close subsidy gaps. They are ready to provide information and plan to open communications once the new government assumes office, and they will continue work on exploration, recovery projects and compliance for nonconventional options.
"It is worth clarifying that we haven't really had this dialogue with the new government." — Alfonso Camilo Munoz (CFO)
Permian production and drilling plan
Q (Alvaro Leyva): The analyst asked the outlook for Permian production in coming quarters/years, whether productivity declines are expected, and whether the drilling plan for this year will be reviewed.
A: Management said production reflects the partner agreement with Oxy and prior decisions to reduce rigs and preparatory equipment, which lowered production versus prior years but current production is above forecast. They are monitoring market options and have added seven wells not planned for 2026; future activity will depend on price scenarios and partner agreements for 2027.
"And having agreed with Oxy, we have decided to accelerate or include seven wells that were not part of the 2026 planning." — Julian Lemos Valero
knowledge transfer and cash flow drop reasons
Q (Andres Duarte · Corficolombiana): The analyst asked how much Permian JV learning transfers to nonconventional development in Colombia, and whether the Q2 cash flow reduction was due to FEPC or other items.
A: Management said staff from the JV have been working with Occidental and those professionals will lead future nonconventional projects, so knowledge is being transferred. On cash flow, management confirmed the variation is substantially due to FEPC timing (a COP 1.6 trillion payment postponed) and also tax items: a COP 1.2 trillion wealth tax accrual and surcharges and income tax, while free operating cash flow remains healthy and they expect stable cash flow for the rest of the year.
"The answer is yes. We -- this, of course, responds substantially to the FPEC behavior." — Alfonso Camilo Munoz (CFO)
midstream/downstream volumes and Brava timeline
Q (Juan Felipe Becerra): The analyst asked whether midstream transport and downstream throughput guidance will be maintained given first-half outperformance, and asked the timeline for Brava consolidation if the tender offer succeeds.
A: They said they plan to maintain volumes across the three traditional segments and are maximizing throughput and optimizing transport to increase value. For Brava, they received regulatory clearance with conditions, launched the tender, expect liquidation if successful on 17 August, and said Ecopetrol would consolidate results in the third quarter of 2026 if all closing conditions and steps complete as planned.
"If everything happens in those states we mentioned, we would see a consolidation of the rater results in Ecopetrol for the third quarter of 2026." — Julian Lemos Valero
permits for offshore/block development
Q (Leonardo Marcondes · BofA): The analyst asked if there are pending environmental or regulatory approvals that could delay block development schedules.
A: Management said they are working closely with government institutions to secure the required permits and have improved relationships with authorities to optimize permit timing. They expect this collaboration to help keep projects on schedule and not affect production targets.
"We have been improving our relationship with all these institutions or entities, and we think we can optimize some of those times for those permits." — Carlos Mauricio Saldarriaga
Brava financing and liability management
Q (Alejandra Andrade Carrillo · JPMorgan): The analyst asked how the Brava acquisition will be financed (bridge loan then refinance) and whether a liability management exercise is being considered alongside that financing.
A: Management confirmed a short-term bridge loan will finance the acquisition and they plan a year-end takeout to long-term credit or a capital markets operation. They said they are monitoring markets to optimize financing costs and will consider liability management to prolong average debt maturity and reduce financial costs.
"As you mentioned in the same question, we are going to do a short-term financing with a bridge loan to finance this acquisition." — Alfonso Camilo Munoz (CFO)
tax-credit liquidity and VAT litigation
Q (Acciones & Valores): The analyst asked the size and future use of liquidity operations on tax credits and for an update on VAT litigation related to fuels.
A: Management said they sold a package of receivables valued at USD 500 million which yielded about COP 2 trillion cash, and that similar operations may be used again as a liquidity lever when needed. On VAT litigation, they have eight ongoing processes (six linked to Barrancabermeja refinery and two by Ecopetrol), are pursuing appeals, and are assessing an alternative dispute mechanism under recent law while continuing the legal cases.
"This operation had a value of USD 500 million, and we were given -- Colombia made a payment around COP 2 trillion." — Alfonso Camilo Munoz (CFO)
refining margins and sustainability
Q (Julio Herrera · Principal Financial Group): The analyst asked what refining margins are assumed for H2 2026 if crack spreads compress and how much of the record margin was structural versus market-driven.
A: Management said Q2 refining benefited from an exceptionally favorable external environment and they are not giving a specific H2 margin guidance. They added the record performance reflected structural improvements—higher throughputs, operational integration, better yields and product mix—so the system’s structural capacity to capture value has strengthened even if market margins normalize.
board changes and extraordinary assembly
Q (Maria Toro Restrepo): The analyst asked whether corporate governance changes or an extraordinary shareholders’ assembly are planned after recent board resignations.
A: Management said the General Assembly of Shareholders is the competent body to elect or remove board members per applicable law and the company charter. They noted the board can continue to deliberate with remaining members and an assembly can be summoned once candidate verification is complete, with timing depending on circumstances.
group energy use and self-generation share
Q (Ernesto Gomez Cabarcas): The analyst asked the group’s daily energy demand in megawatts and how much is covered by self-generation from renewables (not market purchases).
A: Management said Ecopetrol consumes 24 gigawatt hour, about 9% of national consumption, and that 54% of its daily demand is met by self-generation. Of that self-generation, 49% is conventional and 5% is from renewable sources, and they noted a growing renewables portfolio including 440 megawatts of solar.