Oct 23, 2026 earnings call — Record shareholder payout and raised production guidance
Raised share buyback to EUR 3.8 billion and declared an exceptional dividend of EUR 1.3 billion.
Revenue $28.7B (est $25.9B) · EPS $2.13 (est $1.87)
Key quotes
"Strong execution of our strategy has enabled us to raise our full-year underlying production guidance to 6-7%."
"Additionally, we can confirm we are declaring an exceptional dividend of EUR 1.3 billion with ex-dividend date on 7th of December, bringing our total cash dividend this year to EUR 4.4 billion, the highest level in our history."
"In transition, Enilive and Plenitude together reported pro forma EBIT of EUR 0.7 billion, corresponding to EUR 0.6 billion of pro forma EBIT, with Enilive benefiting from supporting biorefining margins, while Plenitude results were impacted by the current competitive environment in the retail space."
Analyst Q&A 10
future CapEx and Venezuela projects
Q (Jon Rigby · Santander): What level of capital spending is needed to keep upstream growth (is EUR 7 billion enough)? Also, what's the total CapEx for Junín 5 and Perla, even if a farm-out is possible?
A: Management said overall CapEx can stay steady, in line with what was seen this year and last, while the Venezuela plan is phased. For the early Venezuelan phase they will use spare capacity so initial capital intensity will be low, and they are still assessing total capital needs.
"So we could continue to expect something that is in the range of what we have seen this year and also last year." — Francesco Gattei
tanker coverage and tax rate
Q (Michele Della Vigna · Goldman Sachs): How much of crude shipping is covered by long-term contracts versus spot? And should we model next year's tax rate at 36%-37% or closer to 40%-45% in a normalized refining environment?
A: About 60% of shipping is under long-term agreements and about 40% is on the spot; more than half of the spot exposure can be passed through to buyers via sales contracts. On tax, the business combination and segment mix lead to a structurally lower rate than historical levels, though pricing also affects the outcome.
"In terms of shipping strategy, I would say 60% roughly of the shipping that we do is under long-term agreements." — Stefano Poyatti
Junín 5 timing and Argentina FID
Q (Alessandro Pozzi · Mediobanca): Is the 200,000 bpd initial Junín 5 phase just for Junín 5 and what's the timing to get to 200k, 400k and 1 million bpd? Also, any technical diluent challenges and update on Argentina FID, RIGI, financing, and accounting?
A: Junín 5 Phase 1 to 200,000 bpd is expected in 18–24 months, 400,000 bpd by end-2029, and the 1 million bpd potential by mid-2032/2033. They need large amounts of diluent but expect synergies from Perla condensate and Corocoro; for Argentina the RIGI application is submitted and should be approved before FID, target financing is 65%–70%, and upstream and midstream will be consolidated via an SPV.
"On the Phase 1, which would reach the 200,000 bpd, we expect between 18 and 24 months." — Guido Brusco
whether 2030 600k includes Venezuela
Q (Lydia Rainforth · Barclays): Does the 600,000 bpd of new production in 2030 include Venezuela? And was 2026 a step change for Eni's resource additions?
A: The 600,000 bpd figure does not include Venezuela. Management said 2026 was a strategic turning point with large resource access (Argentina and Venezuela major contributors) and four growth hubs beyond the Americas in Indonesia, Africa and the Mediterranean.
"Those in the 600,000 bpd Venezuela is not included, to give you a straight answer." — Guido Brusco
gearing and Versalis chemical losses
Q (Josh Stone · UBS): With pro forma gearing below 10%, could Eni become net cash or will excess cash be returned to shareholders? And why is Versalis losing more money and what can be done?
A: They do not assume net cash in planning but said it could happen in some scenarios; distribution policy will be discussed with the board and upside can be shared with shareholders. For Versalis, Q2 effects (Hormuz) and weak demand plus high utilities and lost import duties competitiveness drove results; they are progressing a transformation plan saving about EUR 90 million per quarter but that is offset by the negative scenario and higher energy costs, so they will focus on transformation and innovation.
"Do we expect to reach net debt positive cash? It is not in our assumption, but it is something that could happen in the case of scenario." — Francesco Gattei
SERM margin and fuel cap impact
Q (Paul Redman · BNP Paribas): Does your SERM margin include shipping costs and what have you seen so far in October? Also, what is the quarterly earnings/cash impact of the fuel caps under your Eni for Italy commitments?
A: The adjusted SERM they use does include freight costs, which rose due to the Hormuz situation, and reflects yield changes in crude slate. They reported SERM today at $22 and the quarter at $18, and the fuel cap under current conditions would be in the range of a few hundred millions in a quarter; the retail cap impact for Plenitude is only some millions this year.
Enilive outlook and policy support
Q (Pino Ricci · Berenberg): What is the outlook for Enilive into Q4 and 2027? Will supportive policy in Europe persist even if consumer prices stay high, and does security of supply outweigh cost concerns?
A: The market fundamentals are constructive: the Renewable Energy Directive is already deployed in 17 countries with drafts in seven more, and U.S. policy clarity on clean fuel credits is improving demand visibility. Geopolitics further supports biofuels for security of supply; today they are not exporting volumes to the U.S. because Europe is the optimal outlet given current arbitrage.
Plenitude downgrade reasons
Q (Henry Tarr · Equita): Why did Plenitude lower EBITDA guidance to EUR 1.2 billion and will the headwinds persist into 2027?
A: Retail competition has intensified with new players using aggressive marketing to build customer bases, which pressured results; a one-off summer spike in power demand also forced costly spot purchases. They expect improvement, will adapt retail marketing, and note Plenitude has strong financial firepower after new capital injection to address the environment.
price caps costs and affiliate dividends
Q (Massimo Bonisoli · BofA): What is the overall impact of your recent price caps (fuels, power) on earnings/cash? And can you give more detail on timing of dividends from affiliates for Q4?
A: On the price caps, assuming current cap levels and the forward curve, the fuel cap impact is a few hundred millions in a quarter; Plenitude's marketing cap is only some millions this year and slightly more next year but does not change the total. For Q4 the key contributors to distribution are Searah, plus contributions expected from Vår Energi and Azule.
"About the price cap, we have already said that assuming the current level of cap and assuming the current forward curve, we are speaking about a few hundred millions in a quarter." — Francesco Gattei
Perla export facility timeline and farm-out
Q (Sasi Chilukuru · Jefferies): What is the timeline for developing Perla's export facility, are you marketing a partner and is a farm-down necessary to take FID?
A: The Perla plan has two steps: debottleneck the onshore plant to add 90 million standard cubic feet per day for domestic use, then an export phase via an FLNG of about 3.4–3.5 million tons per annum. They said after FID it will take roughly three and a half years to start production, the FID is subject to government approval, and the technical work and supply chain identification have been done.
"We have stated already that once we will take the FID, it will take three and a half year, give and take, to bring this volume on production." — Guido Brusco