Oct 29, 2026 earnings call — CGM growth, CONNECT study, G7 15 Day rollout
Dexcom reported Q3 revenue of $1.34 billion and raised full-year revenue guidance to $5.20 billion to $5.25 billion.
Revenue $1.3B (est $1.3B) · EPS $0.73 (est $0.68) · Next-quarter revenue outlook $5.2B–$5.3B
Key quotes
"Over a 6-month study period, we saw a 1.6% A1c improvement for the Dexcom CGM Group, which equated to a 0.9% difference in A1c between the CGM arm and the control group."
"This leaves us on track to convert nearly 50% of our U.S. customer base to G7 15 Day by year-end."
"We continue to expect CMS to announce a type 2 non-insulin coverage decision this year as the case for reimbursement is strengthening."
Analyst Q&A 15
category growth and pricing
Q (Matthew Taylor · Jefferies): Analyst asked whether category growth is slowing and if pricing headwinds exist, given a competitor's comments.
A: Management said their long-range plan is unchanged and they remain very confident. They are tracking to a record new patient year and see active base growth in the upper teens, supporting revenue growth.
"We put out our LRP at our Investor Day this summer, and we are still extremely confident in that plan that we put forward." — Jacob Leach (CEO)
international pricing and competition
Q (Robert Marcus · JPMorgan): Analyst asked what DXC sees outside the U.S. on pricing, volume growth, and competition.
A: Management said pricing and reimbursement outside the U.S. have been stable. They match product to reimbursement tiers, feel priced right in their served markets, and say they are taking share where they compete directly.
"As we look at our portfolio and our offerings across the world, and the market conditions that exist there from all competitors in that market, I think we're priced right." — Jereme Sylvain (CFO)
payer contract loss and access
Q (Travis Steed · BofA): Analyst asked about a lost CVS contract, how revenue per patient can offset losses, and confidence in 10%+ growth in 2027.
A: Management explained U.S. access is split between pharmacy formularies and medical benefit, and many patients can still access product via medical benefit/DME. They plan to launch Dexcom Direct early next year to help patients navigate coverage and reduce disruption.
"We have a plan to launch a new system called Dexcom Direct." — Jacob Leach (CEO)
2027 growth drivers and Ireland
Q (Lei Huang · Wells Fargo): Analyst asked for puts and takes for 2027, and how to think about U.S. and OUS growth given coverage expectations.
A: Management reiterated they will give guidance later, noted gross margin progress, and said Ireland will turn on in Q4 which may affect early 2027. They expect tailwinds from moving to 15 Day product and no startup costs from Ireland next year.
"I’d expect there to be a little bit of an impact of Ireland ramping up into the first part of next year." — Jereme Sylvain (CFO)
patient out-of-pocket and DME process
Q (Jeffrey Johnson · Baird): Analyst asked how much higher patient cost would be off preferred pharmacy, and how patients are moved to medical/DME and co-pay levels.
A: Management would not give specific prices but said nonpreferred pricing is much, much higher than preferred. They described the steps: patient needs a prescription to a DME, DME checks medical benefit/prior authorization, and Dexcom Direct will handle this work; DME co-pays vary, often 10% to 20% of total per month.
"It really depends on your individual insurance." — Jereme Sylvain (CFO)
CONNECT study impact and new patient mix
Q (Anna Runci · Piper Sandler): Analyst asked how much non-insulin type 2 patients contributed to new patient starts and if CONNECT is shifting the mix and share vs category growth.
A: Management said CONNECT, now published, strengthens evidence and helps field teams change conversations to broaden coverage. They are seeing a good number of non-insulin new patients (insulin users still largest), and they believe they are taking share in a stable market.
"We are seeing a good number of non-insulin users in our new patient numbers." — Jacob Leach (CEO)
Medicare timing and G8 timeline
Q (Joanne Wuensch · Citi): Analyst asked for updates on Medicare non-intensive type 2 timing and timeline for G8 (GA) product.
A: Management said Medicare timing unchanged: expect a coverage decision this year and coverage taking effect middle of next year. For GA (G8), clinical studies show strong accuracy and performance and they target launch end of next year or early 2028 depending on regulatory timelines.
"We still anticipate hearing back from Medicare around the coverage decision this year." — Jacob Leach (CEO)
international distributor deal
Q (Jayson Bedford · Raymond James): Analyst asked what percent of international business is covered by the announced distributor deal and any Q3 or Q4 impact.
A: Management said the deal is signed but not closed and will close next year, so no impact in Q3 or Q4. It is their largest remaining distributor market in Europe and will be a growth lever when they take it direct.
"It has not closed yet. So it's not going to impact this year." — Jereme Sylvain (CFO)
standards of care and CONNECT
Q (Steven Lichtman · William Blair): Analyst asked how they hope ADA standards of care will change with CONNECT and if that supports CMS coverage confidence.
A: Management expects CONNECT (Level A evidence) to influence standards of care, making CGM a standard for a broad group including non-intensive type 2. They believe standards changes help drive coverage changes and will continue to generate evidence to support that.
"The CONNECT study is Level A evidence." — Jacob Leach (CEO)
G7 15 Day mix and Ireland impact
Q (William Plovanic · Canaccord Genuity): Analyst asked whether exit rate to G7 15 Day reaching nearly 50% is still on track and how much Ireland will impact margins this year and into next.
A: Management said 'nearly 50%' has been consistent and they are close to that exit rate. Ireland will cause a step back in gross margin in Q4 as the facility ramps, with drag into early 2027, but longer term it supports higher mix of 15 Day product and margin progress.
"the 50% has always been nearly 50%" — Jereme Sylvain (CFO)
retention and utilization effects
Q (Michael Kratky · Leerink Partners): Analyst asked whether retention and utilization efforts had a detectable impact on U.S. growth in Q3 and for magnitude.
A: Management said retention and utilization are stable across a growing base, including more type 2 NIT patients. They do not quantify exact contribution, but said initiatives (customer success, product enhancements, My Dexcom Account) are keeping retention/utilization steady as they scale.
"What we're seeing is a very stable retention and utilization, and that's across a base that's growing more and more in the type 2 NIT space." — Jereme Sylvain (CFO)
Smart Basal progress and timing
Q (Daniel Markowitz · Evercore): Analyst asked about Smart Basal contribution, adoption, and timing for a step-up.
A: Management said Smart Basal pilots show good patient and prescriber satisfaction and rapid improvement: most patients reach optimum basal dose in about 3 weeks with no hypoglycemia. They are expanding compatibility (insulins and EHR) and plan broad U.S. and international launch later, without specific dates.
"Most of these patients are getting to their optimum basal dose in about 3 weeks, and that's with no hypoglycemia." — Jacob Leach (CEO)
PCP coverage and prescriber productivity
Q (Kieran Ryan · Deutsche Bank): Analyst asked about PCP prescriber coverage, sales force penetration for broader type 2 market, and turning non-insulin coverage into starts ahead of Medicare.
A: Management said they expanded the sales force earlier with NIT in mind and now tweak territories; they have a stable, efficient sales force. They focus on finding right prescribers, customizing approaches, and using tools (coverage calculators) to maximize limited physician time and improve prescription conversion.
"We made the decision to expand the sales force a few years ago." — Jereme Sylvain (CFO)
risk of other exclusives and Dexcom Direct economics
Q (Ravi Misra · Truist): Analyst asked risk of other payers going exclusive and how Dexcom Direct affects backend costs and profitability per patient.
A: Management said most formularies are co-preferred because customers want choice and 2027 formularies are largely locked. On Dexcom Direct, they expect some incremental costs for white-glove support but believe they've invested in high-volume capabilities and will absorb those costs as part of ongoing investments to help patients navigate complex coverage.
OpEx outlook and investments
Q (Marie Thibault · BTIG): Analyst asked how to think about Q4 exiting 2026 OpEx, investments for G8 and other priorities, and whether sales force expansion is needed.
A: Management said they will continue to invest in G8 clinical work and Dexcom Direct, while not expanding Ireland next year which gives leverage. They expect to keep adding to OpEx annually but also gain operating leverage to support growth and LRP targets.
"Every year, we add a couple of hundred million dollars to OpEx." — Jereme Sylvain (CFO)