Aug 4, 2026 earnings call — Large load growth and generation build strategy
Duke reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.43 and reaffirmed 2026 EPS guidance of $6.55 to $6.80.
Revenue $7.6B (est $7.7B) · EPS $1.43 (est $1.30)
Key quotes
"We have now secured 7.8 gigawatts of electric service agreements with data center customers."
"Slide 7 shows our continued progress on our record generation build, now on track to add 15 gigawatts of capacity by 2031, which reflects additions from our latest 10-year site plan in Florida."
"The settlement includes a 9.8% ROE, 53% equity capital structure, and the continuation of the multiyear rate plan framework."
Analyst Q&A 6
Impact on EPS growth and Indiana plan
Q (Shahriar Pourreza · Wells Fargo): Analyst asked whether the added CapEx and 15 gigawatts of late-stage load could push the EPS CAGR higher and whether management might give an out-of-cycle update before Q4. He also asked if Duke would consider a genco structure in Indiana to more directly flow savings to customers.
A: Management said they have high confidence in the 5% to 7% EPS growth range starting in 2028 as those loads ramp, and they expect to land much of the 15 gigawatts by the first half of next year. They typically update EPS guidance in Q4 unless there is a material change. On the genco idea, they have looked at it before and may revisit it as large loads sign, to provide financing and extra customer protection.
"We have a high degree of confidence in the 5% to 7% in the top half of that range starting in '28 when some of these loads start coming on and ramping." — Harry Sideris (CEO)
Timing of $5–10B in 5-year plan
Q (Nicholas Campanella · Barclays): Analyst asked how much of the $5 billion to $10 billion of additional capital is expected to fit into the current 5-year plan versus later in the 2030s. He also asked about execution risks or bottlenecks building the 5 gigawatts of generation.
A: Brian said the $5 billion to $10 billion was contemplated within the current 5-year plan and should be treated as incremental capital during the remaining 4 years of that plan, triggered when ESAs are signed and contracts modeled. Harry said Duke has experience building plants, is using EPC contracts and identical site designs for synergies, and is using AI tools to monitor construction and schedules to manage execution risk.
"And when we bracketed the $5 billion to $10 billion, we contemplated this is within the current 5-year plan." — Brian Savoy (CFO)
Indiana hearings and new nuclear plans
Q (Julien Dumoulin-Smith · Jefferies): Analyst asked for open comments on Indiana affordability hearings and how Duke is approaching those issues. He also asked how Duke sees new nuclear progressing commercially and for any timeline expectations.
A: Management said they share the Commission and Governor's focus on affordability, plan to collaborate with regulators and intervenors, and believe Duke starts from a strong position on reliability and cost. On new nuclear, they are upgrading existing units and extending licenses now, and for new builds they are working with governments and stakeholders to find ways to offset financial and overrun risk; they will not move forward until those risks are addressed, and they are not setting a timeline.
"And we will not move forward until we have a good plan on how we can offset that risk to protect our customers as well as our investors from any overruns that we have." — Harry Sideris (CEO)
Where late-stage loads are located and gas supply
Q (Carly Davenport · Goldman Sachs): Analyst asked if Duke had broken down the late-stage gigawatt pipeline by state (Florida, Indiana, Carolinas). She also asked whether gas supply for the next phase of gas plants is secured and if fuel could constrain the build-out.
A: Management said the majority of the late-stage pipeline is in Florida and Indiana, though they have not provided a precise breakdown and there are additional opportunities in the Carolinas, Ohio and Kentucky. For gas supply, they have advanced planning and said they have all the gas they need through early 2030 secured and are working with vendors for gas beyond that as projects progress.
"So we have all the gas that we need through early 2030 secured, and we continue to work with our vendors on providing additional gas beyond that." — Harry Sideris (CEO)
Equity pacing and Cayuga coal update
Q (Richard Sunderland · Truist): Analyst asked how Duke plans to pace future equity issuance given ATM progress and whether they might issue equity upfront to de-risk later years. He also asked for an update on the potential sale of the Cayuga coal plant.
A: Brian said Duke will be opportunistic and use the ATM, DRIP and opportunistic issuances when market conditions are attractive, and they have no large block equity planned in the 5-year plan. Harry said a study on continuing to operate and selling Cayuga arrived last month, it is being evaluated, and their immediate focus is getting the new gas plant running before deciding the coal plant's future.
"So it's being evaluated, and then we'll determine what we need to do with that going forward." — Harry Sideris (CEO)
New nuclear technology choice and cash flow shape
Q (Steven Fleishman · Wolfe): Analyst asked whether Duke favors AP1000 large reactors or SMRs and whether Duke is involved in any long-lead supply deals. He also asked how tax credits and later investment recoveries change long-term cash flow shape.
A: Harry said Duke is keeping options open: they filed an early site application for SMRs at Belews Creek, are monitoring OPG's SMR project, and hold a COL license at Lee for 2 AP1000 units, with AP1000 currently in the lead but financial risk must be offset. Brian said he is focused on cash flow: Duke is flowing tax credits back to customers now and expects parity on the nuclear PTCs around 2028–2029, and as tax-credit timing shifts to returns on investments in the early 2030s cash generation will continue to grow and remain durable into the late 2030s.
"We about hit parity on the nuclear PTCs, which is a huge contributor to the tax credit profile of Duke, and it's going to save cost for customers." — Brian Savoy (CFO)