Oct 29, 2026 earnings call — Midstream organic project FIDs and guidance update
Q3 adjusted EBITDA was $301 million; 2026 guidance narrowed to $1.185 billion to $1.225 billion.
Revenue $0.3B (est $0.3B) · EPS $1.16 (est $1.13)
Key quotes
"MIST S1 increases Midwestern's capacity by approximately 300 MMcf per day, which represents a 20% increase in the pipeline's total capacity and is supported by investment-grade utilities under 20-year negotiated rate contracts."
"As David stated in his opening remarks, following our strong year-to-date performance and considering our expectations for the fourth quarter, we are raising our 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance midpoint and narrowing the range to $1.185 billion to $1.225 billion."
"Finally, operationally for the quarter, total gathering volumes were in line with our expectations with the Haynesville averaging 2.17 Bcf per day and the Northeast averaging 1.25 Bcf per day."
Analyst Q&A 12
MIST South drivers and timing
Q (Jeremy Tonet · JPMorgan): They asked what could drive more demand for MIST South in 2030–31, including connections to Southeast Connector and power plant laterals, and also asked about supply sources, MIST North, and any timeline changes.
A: Management said the spring nonbinding open season showed where and when demand will appear and that Phase 1 focuses on 2029 customers. They noted MIST S1 receipt point for these contracts will be REX, and that Midwestern can take supply from multiple pipelines, giving supply diversity. They also said timing is driven by customer demand and mentioned a small pull forward on Millennium.
"The initial nonbinding open season we did in the spring sort of illuminated the demand, the location of the demand and the timing of when that demand would come on to the network." — David Slater (CEO·CHAIR)
MIST Phase 2 size and supply
Q (Praneeth Satish · Wells Fargo): He asked how much of the remaining 1.5 Bcf/d interest is southbound for Tennessee, whether Southeast Connector FID is additive, and if Phase 2 could be larger than Phase 1. He also asked about supply sourcing if REX doesn't expand and whether Vector 2030 is commercially linked to the next MIST phase.
A: Management said they are in execution mode after the spring open season and the Southeast Connector FID is positive but not changing their focus. They declined to dive into nuts-and-bolts supply details for competitive reasons and said they look at the network holistically and collaborate with interconnecting pipelines.
"I think we're just in what I'll call execution mode right now post the nonbinding open season in the spring." — David Slater (CEO·CHAIR)
Gathering consolidation and storage demand
Q (Theresa Chen · Barclays): She asked how recent upstream and midstream consolidation affects customer engagement, recontracting, and competition in the basins they gather, and then asked about contemplated storage developments and expansions.
A: Management said consolidation is happening and the market has shifted from supply-push to demand-pull, noting many producers prefer to work with independent midstream providers like them. On storage, they said there is strong demand for incremental, high-deliverability storage and see opportunities, including enhanced deliverability services at their Washington Penn asset.
"what we're seeing is a tremendous amount of demand for incremental storage, and I'll say, specifically high deliverability storage, given the volatility that the market sees coming with all the power generation." — Christopher Zona (COO)
Repeatability of MIST lateral
Q (Alexander Demetriou · Jefferies): He asked whether the MIST lateral could be repeated and if such laterals could lead to further mainline expansions on MIST.
A: Management said yes; many of the 2030–'31 opportunities include lateral solutions and connecting to the mainline is one route while mainline expansion is another. They expect a combination of lateral and mainline expansion opportunities going forward.
"In fact, I would say a lot of the other opportunities that we're looking at, again, for the 2030, '31 time frame, lateral solutions are part of some of those discussions." — Christopher Zona (COO)
G4 expansion timing and size
Q (Theresa Chen · Barclays): She asked how the G4 expansion opportunity has evolved, what they're waiting for before an open season, and how big the opportunity could be.
A: Management said timing is driven by customer commitment requirements and they will time the project to those commitments. They noted continued strong demand signals from upper Midwest utilities and new power plant proposals, and said Guardian is well positioned to serve that demand.
"I would say, again, that timing is a direct feedback, as David mentioned, we're going to time that to the commitment requirements of our customers." — Christopher Zona (COO)
Haynesville outlook and NEXUS expansion
Q (Jean Ann Salisbury · BofA): She asked whether softer gas prices have changed Haynesville growth expectations and producer plans in the medium term, and asked about the potential size and scope of a NEXUS expansion.
A: Management said prompt gas prices weakened recently causing some near-term curtailments, but long-term demand remains bullish with recent LNG announcements. On NEXUS, they agreed the demand is coming in Bcf, noted progress building interconnects, and said early conversations are underway to firm up capacity on a long-term basis.
"The short answer is in the near term, like I think we said earlier on the call, we're seeing some curtailments, particularly in the Northeast, just due to the weak short-term price." — David Slater (CEO·CHAIR)
G4 earliest timing and NE volumes outlook
Q (Keith Stanley · Wolfe): He asked if the 2031+ G4 timing could be pulled forward and how much time they still have to commercialize it, and asked about expectations for Northeast gathering volumes annually and over time.
A: Management said they have time to commercialize G4 and could pull it forward if the customer needed it, but the 2031+ estimate reflects current customer development timelines. For Northeast gathering, they expect near-term flat volumes and longer-term low single-digit growth, and said they can expand rapidly as demand centers build.
"I think if we needed to, quite frank, we could pull that forward if the customer needs that, but that is our best estimate based on where they are in their development process right now." — Christopher Zona (COO)
Capital plan view and Haynesville expansions
Q (Spiro Dounis · Citi): He asked for high-level changes to capital plan inputs and whether the full-probability backlog view changed, and then asked for color on the added Haynesville expansions and where the interest is coming from.
A: Management said they are bullish on the portfolio and have been sanctioning capital over the last quarters, citing recent healthy pace of approvals. On Haynesville, they said the expansions are demand-pull, with interest on the east side from incremental LNG, domestic power, and industrial demand, and that their LEAP approach is an economic way to expand.
"Maybe a way to help frame this for the audience, for you and the audience, would be look back over the last 3 quarters, we've sanctioned $800 million of capital in the last 3 quarters, so Q1, 2 and 3." — David Slater (CEO·CHAIR)
Coal-to-gas conversion timing factors
Q (Brandon Bingham · Scotiabank): He asked what could pull forward coal-to-gas switching demand into the Midwest or what might delay conversions to gas.
A: Management said conversions are attractive where brownfield sites already connect to the grid, creating value for developers who can connect reliably, and their pipeline location is advantageous. They said falling reserve margins and price signals driven by grid tightness and regulator concerns about reliability could accelerate timing, but specific timing is hard to predict.
"So that creates tremendous value for some of these developers is to be -- have confidence that they can connect to the grid reliably." — David Slater (CEO·CHAIR)
Vector execution, NEXUS, and expansion trigger
Q (Saumya Jain · UBS): She asked how Vector 2028 and 2030 execution affects NEXUS recontracting and capacity utilization, and what utility load sizes would move them from evaluation to an active open season for expansion.
A: Management said the domino effect is real with demand moving upstream after last-mile projects; Vector expansions are bringing on many of the same utility customers needing capacity and deliverability. They noted NEXUS has about 300 million a day of short-term capacity and early conversations are underway to convert that to longer-term commitments, which could trigger an expansion.
"And I'll say a lot of the demand that I referenced earlier in terms of both capacity and deliverability are the same set of customers that are coming on the Vector '28 and Vector 2030 expansions." — Christopher Zona (COO)
Permitting reform impact on projects
Q (John Mackay · Goldman Sachs): He asked how much customers focus on permitting and whether permitting reform or election outcomes could lead to pulled-forward contracting or project schedules.
A: Management said the market is anxious about the midterms and they are watching whether Congress will push bipartisan permitting reform, which would remove friction in the regulatory process and reduce risk for large investments. They said reform probably would not change near-term schedules but would improve the long-term risk backdrop and help capital investment confidence, especially in constrained regions like New England and New York.
"I think what we're watching for is regardless of the outcomes of the midterms, we get on the other side, does Congress really lean into getting this bipartisan permitting reform legislation done." — David Slater (CEO·CHAIR)
Northeast curtailments and Canadian supply
Q (Zackery Van Everen · TPH): He asked whether current Northeast volumes are at minimum volume commitments and if there will be financial impacts, and whether Viking can bring more gas from Canada without upstream border work.
A: Management said current volumes are well above MVC levels and that is reflected in their guidance bottom line. They said a lot of gas sits at the border and there is an expansion opportunity for northern shippers that would not require significant upstream work depending on volume, and noted Canadian pricing is competitive so incremental volumes could flow, though the opportunity is somewhat further out.
"I think, this is -- if you look at where our volumes have been traditionally and where we are today, we're well above the MVC amounts here today." — Christopher Zona (COO)