Oct 30, 2026 earnings call — Venezuela growth and operational gains
Chevron plans to double production for three Venezuela joint ventures to roughly 600,000 bpd by 2031, with total costs expected to be under $20 per barrel.
Revenue $67.8B (est $61.8B) · EPS $5.28 (est $4.87)
Key quotes
"Venezuela will be part of that story, where we have deep on-the-ground expertise built over our 100-year history there. With new fiscal terms, Venezuela is now more competitive within our portfolio and immediately accretive and free cash flow positive."
"2026 is also proving to be an inflection year for AI, with more than $100 million in value capture to date, with much more building quickly."
"We achieved record crude throughput in our refining system, helping meet demand in supply-constrained markets."
Analyst Q&A 13
Venezuela costs and risks
Q (Arun Jayaram · JPMorgan): Analyst asked about the cost structure in Venezuela and how the company manages above-ground risks when restarting activity.
A: Management said they manage risk with strong contract terms and by building local support through jobs, taxes, and reliable operations. They said Chevron will lift and market the oil, control revenue flows, and expect the program to be self-funding. They described the operation as a factory-like drilling program with total cost less than $20 a barrel and no major new infrastructure spend expected as production doubles to 600,000.
"The cost structure's really competitive, so total cost less than $20 a barrel." — Eimear Bonner (CFO)
TCO concession extension status
Q (Devin McDermott · Morgan Stanley): Analyst asked for an update on the TCO concession extension, the dialogue with government, timeline, and what a win-win outcome looks like.
A: Management declined to comment on media reports but said the negotiation process has made good progress over the past year with technical, commercial, and legal teams meeting regularly. They said issues have narrowed to core items and they seek an outcome competitive for the republic and competitive returns for partners, and they will report milestones when reached.
"The list of issues has narrowed really to what I'd call the fundamental core issues, and we're focused on working those." — Mike Wirth (CEO·CHAIR)
Bakken asset view and impact
Q (Neil Mehta · Goldman Sachs): Analyst asked if the Bakken is viewed as a core asset after recent contract and operational changes and the financial impact of those changes.
A: Management said restructuring midstream tariffs increases upstream returns, expands economic inventory, and improves operational flexibility, allowing evaluation of the basin's full potential. They said the move increases corporate ROCE by 0.5%, deconsolidates $3.7 billion of debt, and will record a one-time non-cash after-tax loss of $3 billion-$4 billion upon closing at year-end.
"The 50% reduction in tariff, it quite frankly makes the Bakken stronger." — Mark Nelson (CHAIR)
Capital allocation plans
Q (Neal Dingmann · William Blair): Analyst asked whether the stronger balance sheet changes capital allocation plans for next year.
A: Management said there is no change to capital allocation given market volatility. They reiterated long-standing priorities: grow the dividend consistently, invest capital efficiently, maintain a strong balance sheet, and repurchase shares within a $2.5 billion-$3 billion range.
"Maybe just recap, the first priority within that is to grow the dividend consistently." — Eimear Bonner (CFO)
AI use across company
Q (James West · Melius): Analyst asked how Chevron is using AI at the enterprise level and in exploration.
A: Management said they use AI both to improve operations and to support growing energy demand, focusing on better decisions, efficiency, and employee capability. They have deployed AI production engineering tools in Permian, Bakken, and PZ assets, are testing design and project-scoping tools, and have captured more than $100 million year to date from AI initiatives; exploration uses include ApEx and ScoutAI for faster, higher-confidence prospecting.
"Let me give you a couple of examples, because we have captured real value this year, more than $100 million year to date, and we expect, obviously, that to increase significantly as we scale." — Eimear Bonner (CFO)
LNG debottlenecking and capacity
Q (Biraj Borkhataria · RBC): Analyst asked about potential debottlenecking in the LNG portfolio, current nameplate status in Australia, and upside potential.
A: Management said debottlenecking is a mindset enabled by centralized project oversight and pointed to upstream examples of capacity gains. They said Gorgon and Wheatstone are already above nameplate today, see more potential, and that reliability plus capital-efficient backfill projects support continued strong production.
"We are already above nameplate at Gorgon and Wheatstone today, and I see more potential for that." — Mark Nelson (CHAIR)
Project Kilby size and permits
Q (Jean Ann Salisbury · BofA): Analyst asked whether already-permitted sites like Kilby gain value if permits tighten, how large Kilby could grow, and gating factors to expansion.
A: Management said Kilby is a 2.67 GW behind-the-meter power project in West Texas with a 20-year PPA with Microsoft and that it was designed to limit grid impact and use non-potable water. They said expansion to combined cycle depends on additional permits, they are finalizing the EPC and securing financing, and they remain on track for first power in 2028 and full energization in 2031.
"we are on track with Kilby to have first power in 2028 and full energization in 2031." — Eimear Bonner (CFO)
Transferring Venezuela approach elsewhere
Q (Sam Margolin · Wells Fargo): Analyst asked if the rapid Venezuela process is a model Chevron can export to other large resource holders and whether other governments are paying attention.
A: Management said being the incumbent in Venezuela gives an advantage from geology, infrastructure, workforce, and service-provider familiarity, and there are parallels with Iraq where terms look competitive and a mostly drilling-focused development plan is being worked on. They said discussions are ongoing with other governments and they will provide specifics when ready.
"As an incumbent on the ground, as the only incumbent on the ground, we definitely have an advantage in terms of our understanding of the geology, the infrastructure." — Mike Wirth (CEO·CHAIR)
Permian growth versus plateau
Q (Doug Leggate · Wolfe): Analyst asked what it would take to return to Permian growth beyond the current plateau and capital plan.
A: Management said they intentionally moved the Permian to a managed plateau and are focused on sweating the assets, improving efficiencies, and applying technology to extend the plateau's economic life. They said technologies could make higher growth economic but declined to speculate on what would trigger a return to growth, focusing instead on building capabilities and optionality.
"What they can do is they can extend the economic life of the plateau." — Mike Wirth (CEO·CHAIR)
Ethylene and refining margin outlook
Q (Manav Gupta · UBS): Analyst asked about global ethylene chain margins, offline capacity, and how refining versus petrochemical margins might normalize.
A: Management said refining margins should stay elevated short term because about 10% of refining capacity is offline and exports are reduced, but margins may moderate as runs recover. On chemicals, they estimated somewhere between 5% and 10% of petchem capacity is offline today, tightening markets, and noted CP Chem is ethane-advantaged with two large crackers coming online next year.
"somewhere between 5% and 10% of petchem capacity seems to be offline today, and that makes markets tighter, especially from Middle East volumes not flowing." — Mark Nelson (CHAIR)
Impact of high freight rates
Q (Lucas Herrmann · BNP Paribas): Analyst asked how elevated freight rates affect refining profitability and the firm's shipping exposure and contracts.
A: Management said location and transport costs now matter more and that having a controlled fleet is an advantage because many vessels are owned or on long-term charters entered before the conflict. They said owning or chartering captures transportation margin, their upstream integration into supply has risen to about 50%, and transportation control materially contributed to quarterly results.
"It's an advantage to have a controlled fleet, and we have a significant portion of our fleet that are either ships that we own or ships that we have on long-term time charter." — Mike Wirth (CEO·CHAIR)
M&A appetite and portfolio gaps
Q (Betty Jiang · Barclays): Analyst asked whether global disruptions change where Chevron might seek inorganic exposure across the energy value chain.
A: Management said the current portfolio is the best it's been and shows no gaps they need to fill, but they will continue disciplined, value-focused M&A to improve the portfolio when opportunities arise. They said M&A is a core competency, they won't speculate on potential targets, and they reminded that history cautions against deals done at commodity price peaks.
"There's no gaps or weaknesses that we see that need to be addressed." — Mike Wirth (CEO·CHAIR)
Exploration progress and prospects
Q (Phillip Jungwirth · BMO): Analyst asked about progress since hiring a new head of exploration, what is most exciting, and potential in places like Kazakhstan.
A: Management said exploration has improved via higher-graded inventory, better technology, and faster decisions, doubling acreage since 2024 and adding blocks across multiple basins. They noted 15 discoveries with roughly half likely to become tiebacks, highlighted the Angola 105-4X well with a 2,000 ft oil and gas condensate column and 300 ft net pay, and described the outlook as the highest confidence in years.
"Our opportunity set is the largest and highest quality I have seen in years." — Mark Nelson (CHAIR)