Oct 28, 2026 earnings call — Record adjusted EBITDA and raised outlook
Raised 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $1.03 billion to $1.06 billion and free cash flow in excess of $300 million.
Revenue $2.6B (est $2.5B) · EPS $0.84 (est $0.73)
Key quotes
"Given our record performance in the first 9 months of this year, and our current outlook for the remainder of the year, we are raising our outlook for the full year once again."
"Our recycling center in Neuf Brisach continues to ramp up. I am also pleased to say that our third Airware casthouse in Issoire started up on budget."
"Aerospace demand has improved this year, and is running ahead of our expectations coming into the year."
Analyst Q&A 5
Q4 drivers and 2027 outlook
Q (Corinne Blanchard · Deutsche Bank): She asked what drives the Q4 EBITDA, what could help or hurt it, and then asked about the 2027 outlook for the core business—especially aerospace volumes and pricing.
A: They said Q4 is still an excellent quarter but shows typical seasonality with lower recycling volumes because of outages and a moved recycling run. Automotive benefits from the Oswego outage are tapering and Section 38 tariffs are a headwind, and there is more headquarter spending timing. For 2027 they expect aerospace to be significantly stronger, tighter capacity to support pricing, and new projects (Airware, Neuf-Brisach, Muscle Shoals) to ramp and add higher-value product.
"We generally have 55% to 60% of our EBITDA in the first half of the year, and this year is no exception to that." — Ingrid Joerg (CEO)
Investment impact and recycling utilization
Q (Katja Jancic · BMO): She asked how much the return-seeking investments could add to EBITDA over the next 1–2 years, and asked how much the new recycling center still needs to ramp.
A: They said they invest only when projects clear a 15% hurdle and Airware is one of the highest margin products, and they disclosed the Airware CapEx around $40.45 ish including working capital needs. They said the recycling center will exit the year around 80% utilization and should reach full capacity gradually in the first half of next year, and smaller debottlenecking projects will also add benefits over several years.
"So I think we will exit the year around 80% of utilization, and then we will gradually in the first half of the year get to full capacity." — Ingrid Joerg (CEO)
Q4 year-over-year drivers and CapEx
Q (Bill Peterson · JPMorgan): He asked why Q4 guidance is down year-over-year (shipments, downtime, mix, metal) and then asked about CapEx for debottlenecking and the expected uplift in capacity or profitability.
A: They said the year-over-year comparison is affected by an exceptionally strong 2025 quarter, typical seasonality (including a half-month of December shipments), lower automotive as Oswego benefits fade, Section 38 tariffs, and higher headquarter cost phasing. On debottlenecking, they said most projects are small (a couple million here and there) and not material to CapEx forecasts, but over several years plate capacity could increase up to about 20% depending on product mix.
"We talked a little bit about the additional tariffs on Section 38 and then higher headquarter cost, which is really just the phasing issue." — Ingrid Joerg (CEO)
Scrap availability and market impacts
Q (Timna Tanners · Wells Fargo): She asked whether Oswego, Bay Minette and Arconic have changed scrap availability or volumes, whether low-cost scrap is still available, and then asked about packaging demand in the U.S. and European auto import restrictions.
A: They said they have not seen negative impact on automotive volumes from Bay Minette or Arconic and they have gained additional qualifications and diversified customers. They said there is sufficient scrap availability in the U.S. and Europe and European recycling rates are rising, and that packaging saw a surge of can sheet imports during the Oswego outage which is already showing signs of coming down. Regarding the European auto import cap, they noted it is set at 350 thousand per year max with a 6% growth rate after the first 4 years and a made-in-Europe component that should help OEMs, but the timing of any positive impact is hard to quantify.
"I think we see sufficient availability of scrap in the market, both in The US and in Europe." — Ingrid Joerg (CEO)
Inflation, energy hedges, Vision 2028
Q (Barclays): He asked what inflationary risks to worry about for next year and how much Vision 2028 efficiency gains versus stronger markets drove the higher guide.
A: They said they see a bit higher inflation but view it as manageable, noting some contracts have pass-throughs and energy is hedged. They said labor inflation remains the biggest ongoing cost pressure, which Vision 2028 targets by improving asset utilization and cost, but only partial benefits show this year.
"So we are already quite well hedged for obviously, we are fully hedged for 2026, but we are also quite well hedged for 2027 and also beyond." — Ingrid Joerg (CEO)