Aug 6, 2026 earnings call — Fuel spike, strong demand and guidance update
Updated full-year operating margin outlook to 17 to 19 percent.
Revenue $1.1B (est $1.1B) · EPS $1.67 (est $1.88)
Key quotes
"During the quarter, average all in jet fuel price increased 85 percent year over year. From $2.32 to $4.28 per gallon."
"Based on these demand strengths, and current fuel cost projections, we are updating our full year outlook and now expect an operating margin for 2026 to be in the range of 17 to 19 percent."
"As part of our continuous efforts to strengthen the Hub of the Americas, we recently set in place our transition from 6 to 8 connecting banks beginning in March 2027."
Analyst Q&A 7
Q3/Q4 bookings and 2028 deliveries
Q (Savanthi Syth · Raymond James): How much of Q3 was booked before the fare increases and how much of Q3 and Q4 are currently booked? Any early thoughts on 2028 deliveries?
A: Pre-war Q3 bookings were about 20% and Q4 was almost nothing. Today they are about 75% booked for Q3 and about 25% sold for Q4. For 2027 they expect 12 deliveries, with flexibility to let some 7 hundreds go; 2028 numbers not yet shared but they expect more deliveries and have flexibility with lease expirations and unencumbered aircraft.
"Right now, we are about 75% booked for Q3. And about 25% sold for Q4." — Robert Carey
H2 unit revenue and interest cost
Q (Duane Pfennigwerth · Evercore): Will third-quarter unit revenue growth differ from fourth-quarter growth, or will they be similar? And how will non-op net interest expense trend into the back half?
A: They see roughly plus 10 percent on RASM in H2 and expect it to be fairly consistent across Q3 and Q4. Net interest expense should be pretty stable across the year, with a little more financing cost as more aircraft arrive, which is embedded in their plan.
"At this point, we are seeing, plus 10 percent on RASM in h 2." — Robert Carey
Why capacity increased; Starlink plan
Q (Guilherme Mendes · JPMorgan): What drove the upward revision to capacity guidance — earlier deliveries or higher utilization? And what are the CapEx and the business model for Starlink (will passengers pay, loyalty perks)?
A: Capacity was increased because Boeing deliveries have come in on time or a bit early and utilization has risen, and demand is strong. Starlink CapEx was already included and prepaid in the books and guidance; the business model gives complimentary access to business class and preferred members and Starlink subscribers, while other passengers will pay.
"The business model complementary access is gonna be there for business class passengers, all of our preferred member gold platinum, and presidential members, as well as Starlink subscribers." — Robert Carey
CapEx outlook and competition/fuel
Q (Filipe Ferreira Nielsen · Citi): How does receiving aircraft earlier change CapEx for the year? And how is competition responding as fuel drops in the back half?
A: CapEx is now expected between $700 and $750, about $50 million less than the start-of-year guide because one delivery moved from December to January. On competition, they see discipline so far and are comfortable with guidance; they note pre-war average yields in the region were below 2019, so lower fuel should have a net positive effect on margins.
"And, yeah, we are seeing CapEx right now between $700 and $750." — Peter Donkersloot Ponce (CFO)
Why Q2 margins hit lower end
Q (Rogério Araújo · BofA): What uncertainties were built into the Q2 8%–12% EBIT margin range, and why did results land toward the lower end?
A: The wider guidance range reflected uncertainty from the war, fuel prices, and demand response. Results landed toward the lower end mainly due to RASM being weaker than expected; fuel was within the guided range, and the World Cup impacted June more than they had expected.
"the World Cup did impact us a bit more than expected in June." — Robert Carey
Buyback remaining and 2027 delivery timing
Q (Jens Spiess · Morgan Stanley): How much of the $200 million buyback remains? And after delivery shifts, how many aircraft will you get in 2027 and how are they spaced?
A: They have executed $45 million year to date and have around $60 million left to complete the program. Delivery dates move by small amounts (often December to January) which is not material to ASM counts; the 12 deliveries next year are pretty evenly spaced.
"On the buyback program, just to clarify, we have executed $45 million year to date." — Peter Donkersloot Ponce (CFO)
Where demand is coming from; price resilience
Q (Alberto Valerio · UBS): With oil and costs up, where is the demand coming from by region? And how resilient are the recent fare increases?
A: Demand is strong across the whole network; there is not one region doing much better or much weaker than the rest, though Brazil and North America are slightly stronger on the margin. They believe the price increases are sustainable because pre-war average yields in the region were below 2019, and a record first quarter shows a strong base.
"There is not really 1 region that is that is doing much better or that is weak compared to the rest." — Pedro Heilbron (CEO·CHAIR)