Oct 29, 2026 earnings call — Maintenance production outlook and capital allocation
CNX expects maintenance production mode for 2027 and will be close to four Tcf going into winter.
Revenue $0.5B (est $0.5B) · EPS $1.12 (est $0.59)
Key quotes
"Right now, we are not giving forward guidance, but right now it looks like we will be in maintenance production mode, right?"
"Right now, share repurchases are sort of the bar we test all of that against, and they continue to be extremely attractive as you saw this quarter."
"So there is another four to five years sort of to develop the rest of that. Then the program shifts over to CPA Utica predominantly with CPA Marcellus, as we call that area."
Analyst Q&A 6
2027 production outlook and hedges
Q (Gabe Daoud · Truist): He asked how current gas prices and the macro backdrop translate into CNX's plans for 2027, and whether the company will stay in maintenance production. He also asked CNX's view on a big in-basin merger and its appetite for M&A.
A: Management said storage is near the five-year average and they expect to be close to four Tcf going into winter. They are not providing forward guidance but plan to stay in maintenance production mode unless incentives change, and they said they are pretty hedged going into 2027. On M&A, they said it is one lane of capital allocation and that share repurchases remain the bar they test transactions against.
"Where we sit right now, we are pretty much on the five-year average for storage levels." — Alan Shepard (CEO)
inflation impact and Utica infrastructure
Q (Leo Mariani · Roth): He asked whether inflation is starting to affect costs and might get worse next year. He also asked if new midstream build-out will be needed to develop deeper Utica in central Pennsylvania.
A: They said the main cost increases are diesel and steel, but overall the impact is small. Specifically, management said the impact to their program is less than 1% of their capital and that their diesel exposure is limited due to electric frac fleets and in-field water transportation. For Utica infrastructure, they expect no major spikes and called it roughly in the $25 million plus or minus range year to year.
"But our overall impact to our program is less than 1% of our capital." — Navneet Behl (COO)
where drilling will be in coming years
Q (Phillip Jungwirth · BMO): He asked how CNX will transition activity between Southwest PA Marcellus and Utica over the coming years and whether the focus will remain in Southwest PA or gradually pivot. He also asked about maintenance CapEx and how total spend might trend if shifting to deeper Utica.
A: Management said developing the remaining Southwest PA Marcellus acreage is the most economic path and that they expect to exit Southwest PA as they exit the decade, with another four to five years to develop it. After that, the program shifts to CPA Utica and CPA Marcellus, and later returns to Southwest PA Utica. On capital efficiency, they want all-in D&C plus infrastructure in the $0.85-$0.90 range moving forward, with opportunity to lower costs on Utica drilling days.
"So all in with the capital infrastructure in the D&C, you are calling that $0.85-$0.90 range is where we want to be, sort of moving forward." — Alan Shepard (CEO)
management change and long-term demand
Q (Michael Scialla · Stephens): He asked for color on Everett's departure and Ravi assuming the CFO role. He also asked whether robust long-term natural gas demand forecasts would change CNX's approach, such as buybacks versus growing production.
A: They said they are excited to have Ravi as an in-house CFO, and they will not add beyond what is in the 8-Ks regarding Everett's departure. On demand, management said they are extremely bullish on long-term basin demand but uncertain on precise numbers; they will keep production at maintenance until longer-term pricing gives a call on incremental volumes.
"I am not going to add anything additional on the Everett departure outside what was in the 8-Ks." — Alan Shepard (CEO)
in-basin pricing, curtailment, and buybacks
Q (Betty Jiang · Barclays): She asked why the 3Q gas differential was wider and what CNX's in-basin exposure is. She asked whether curtailment affected volumes, and whether CNX will continue to draw on the balance sheet for large buybacks and use the revolver.
A: Management said two-thirds of their portfolio is in-basin and that weather and softness kept many volumes local because sending them out was uneconomic. They said curtailment occurred in some stretches but it was less than 1 B for the whole quarter, and hedges reduced the need to shut in volumes. On buybacks, they declined to give short-term tactical detail, saying historically they accelerate repurchases when the sector de-rates and view buybacks as a way to grow production per share and long-term per-share value.
"It's been less than 1 B, though, probably for the whole quarter, so we haven't split that out." — Alan Shepard (CEO)
direct sales talks and Deep Utica 2027 plans
Q (Michael Scialla · Stephens): He asked whether CNX is having direct-sale discussions with potential customers and what the timeframe might be. He also asked if the Deep Utica program for 2027 will be similar to this year or could be increased.
A: They said CNX is participating in basin-wide discussions about direct sales but the challenge is there must be enough premium to justify long-term contracts, so no specific timeline was given. They will participate as projects come online over the next five years and will update if something meaningful happens. For Deep Utica, they said the 2027 mix likely looks similar to this year, blending Deep Utica with remaining Southwest PA, and they won't provide precise counts now.
"I mean, the challenge has been what's the incentive to lock yourself up to long-term contracts if you're not getting enough of a premium to lock into that fixed delivery?" — Alan Shepard (CEO)