Oct 27, 2026 earnings call — NorthStar restructure and large IRP plan
Company reaffirmed full-year 2026 EPS guidance of $3.83 to $3.90 and said over 35% of NorthStar assets are signed or closed.
Revenue $2.2B (est $2.2B) · EPS $1.44 (est $1.35)
Key quotes
"As a reminder, as part of this restructuring, we retain Dearborn Industrial Generation, or DIG, several small gas peakers, and 4 commercial solar projects, all of which generate strong cash flows, and support our long term growth strategy."
"Through 2040, the IRP details in all of the above resource strategy that combines natural gas, solar, wind, pump storage, and battery storage to deliver reliable, affordable, and cleaner energy for Michigan customers."
"We are reaffirming our full year 2026 guidance of $3.83 to $3.90 per share with continued confidence toward the high end."
Analyst Q&A 9
Future of FCM and Michigan policy
Q (Marcella · Wells Fargo): How durable is the FCM after the election and how to think about energy policy in Michigan?
A: Management said they do not see the FCM going away and highlighted the FCM growth shown in their presentation. They pointed to projected growth to $125 million by 2031 and $95 million by 2040, and said over 70% of 2031 contracts are already signed or online. Management also said the MPSC recognized the FCM value and that depreciated River Hydro assets were not included in their FCM projection.
"The short answer is we do not see the FCM going away." — Garrick J. Rochow (CEO)
Large load cadence and CapEx relation
Q (Jeremy Tonet · JPMorgan): Can you give more color on large load expectations and cadence? Also, should we still use 1 GW = $2 billion–$5 billion when thinking about IRP and the $27 billion long-term CapEx plan?
A: They said 745 megawatts have been signed and 450 megawatts are already energized, and that multiple data centers remain in the pipeline across the state. On the CapEx relationship, they said the 2 billion to $5 billion per gigawatt is still a reasonable way to think about it and they will incorporate data-center needs into the IRP and future capital plans via their annual process.
"I think that is still good way to look at it, 2 billion to $5 billion and that really just bifurcated between just the capacity needed and then the clean energy that is needed over time." — Srikanth Maddipati (CFO)
NorthStar sale progress and policy outlook
Q (Richard Sunderland · Truist): How is the NorthStar asset sale process progressing versus expectations, and how are stakeholder conversations and regulatory changes trending before and after the election?
A: They said they are pleased with progress: 35% of NorthStar assets are either under purchase-sale agreement or closed and exclusivity with buyers is well underway. They reiterated the restructure remains on track to complete by year end and that use of funding is trending positively versus prior disclosures (they referenced at least $500 million). On policy, they said they have strong on-the-ground relationships, expect to find common ground around affordability, and highlighted multiyear rate plans, personal property tax, permitting reform, and low-to-moderate income improvements as areas for progress.
"I am very pleased with the progress, from where we stand in the in the 35% of the assets that are either purchase sale agreement or closed and so that is trending well." — Garrick J. Rochow (CEO)
NorthStar earnings and 2027 planning
Q (James · Jefferies): How should we think about NorthStar's contribution against full-year guidance and reversals into Q4 and 2027? Also, how should we view 2027's storm, productivity, and spend assumptions?
A: They said NorthStar has overperformed relative to their original plan because some projects reached COD, but some of that benefit will reverse and some is just tax timing. They said sales of some assets are already incorporated into their 2027 guide and that some taxable equity pieces will roll off into 2017 (as stated). For 2027 planning, they use conservative storm planning net of reinvestments, retain flexibility to reinvest in the business, and expect some fourth-quarter spend may be pulled forward while keeping contingency for sales.
"And in terms of kind of rolling into 2027, we have already incorporated the that we are selling some of the assets, so that is already in our 2027 guide." — Srikanth Maddipati (CFO)
745 MW and growth guidance clarity
Q (Nicholas Campanella · Barclays): Will the 745 megawatts be reflected in the full-year update and how should we think about whether long-term growth is closer to 7% or 8%?
A: They said the 745 megawatts figure does not include the large-load agreement data center and much of the 745 MW mix is already online and built into their plan and IRP. They added that additional data centers would push sales and capital above current plans and would be incorporated as they execute, and reiterated their long-term guidance of 6%–8% growth toward the high end, which they described as about 7%.
"I have great deal of confidence in our ability to deliver in our guidance range for 2026 as we have framed up during this call." — Garrick J. Rochow (CEO)
New FCM contract and regulation
Q (Michael Sullivan · Wolfe): Is the new FCM signing with all one customer or a supplier, will these remain large deals, and any regulatory thoughts on annual rate cases or equity ratio?
A: They clarified the FCM deals are with suppliers, not customers, and said this specific agreement is with one individual supplier that will be brought into the portfolio starting in 2031. On regulation they said annual rate cases have brought savings back to customers and that they have discussed multiyear rate plans for predictability; they noted they smooth benefits (for example ASP) over multiple years to give consistency to customers.
"And that is 1 individual supplier that we are contracting with." — Srikanth Maddipati (CFO)
Moody's outlook and financing impact
Q (Anthony Crowdell · Mizuho): Does the utility negative outlook at Moody's versus a stable parent add financing pressure or change parent financing plans? Could it move to stable?
A: They said the negative Outlook is at the utility level and that outcomes will depend on actions at the utility. They said Moody's will evaluate both qualitative and quantitative factors, and that the quantitative focus will be on rate recovery and the equity ratio; they noted the company is looking for a 51.75% equity ratio in the electric case.
"Kind of as you noted, Anthony, the Outlook is actually at the utility, and so a lot of that just gonna be dependent on actions at the utility." — Srikanth Maddipati (CFO)
Why IRP shows loads before CapEx inclusion
Q (Andrew Weisel · Scotiabank): Why does the IRP include signed data-center load but the capital plan does not yet include the related CapEx? At what point would multiple data centers justify building a CCGT? And what in the PSC letter looks promising or concerning?
A: They said when a contract is signed it must be included in the IRP and the IRP models signed contracts and scenarios. They explained capital inclusion is more conservative: they need to clear conditions precedent like siting before adding capital, the customer ramp is slow and often energizes in the back half of the plan, and the IRP already has a combined-cycle plan in 2040 that would be pulled forward if load continues to grow. On the PSC letter they said it contains many positive items like multiyear rate plans and low-to-moderate income improvements and it does not attack ROE or equity thickness.
"When we sign a contract, it is required to include it in the integrated resource plan." — Garrick J. Rochow (CEO)
10.5% rate-base CAGR and slide trimming
Q (Sophie Karp · KeyBanc): Is the long-term 10.5% rate-base CAGR still valid? Why were some rate-base and funnel disclosures removed from this deck?
A: They confirmed the 10.5% rate-base CAGR is still supported by the capital plan and said they will update the capital plan in the fourth quarter; they also said FCM growth is included in that rate-base view. On the trimmed disclosure they said not to read into it — the deck was streamlined for the brief call and a fuller EEI deck will include the usual funnel and other details.
"So that is still supported by capital plan, and we are gonna update our capital plan here in the fourth quarter." — Srikanth Maddipati (CFO)