Oct 28, 2026 earnings call — Recipe for Growth traction and restaurant expansion
Sales grew 9.6% to $3.3 billion in Q3, with comparable restaurant sales up 2.1%.
Revenue $3.3B (est $3.3B) · EPS $0.27 (est $0.29)
Key quotes
"HEEP is now installed in over 1,700 restaurants, and we continue to work toward approximately 2,000 restaurants by year-end."
"The tool, which we plan to roll out nationally early next year, uses AI-based demand forecast to recommend the right amount of freshly prepared food at the right time."
"On August 31st, we broke new ground by launching 2 limited time offerings together, bringing back Pollo Asado with an all-new recipe and our Chili Lime Chips, our first innovation in the category."
Analyst Q&A 12
October sales and Q4 outlook
Q (David Palmer · Evercore): Analyst asked about October sales, diagnosis of the weak start, implications for strategy, and 2027 same-store sales expectations.
A: They said September finished up 3.8% and October had a choppy start but transactions have since recovered. They expect Q4 comps around plus 2% and an exit rate of 3% to 4%, driven by the Brisket launch and marketing.
"we anticipate that our Q4 comps will actually be around a plus 2%." — Adam Rymer (CFO)
Throughput and marketing spend
Q (Sara Senatore · BofA): Analyst asked if focus on speed hurt hospitality, whether metrics/compensation changed, and about normalizing marketing for Brisket.
A: They said throughput performance matched Q2 and crew bonuses remain tied to quarterly throughput. About 1,700 restaurants have HEEP and show plus 2 entrees versus base; throughput work continues into 2027. On marketing, they said Brisket causes higher spend in the last 2 months, so Q4 marketing will be a bit higher.
"In the restaurants where we have HEEP into -- fully loaded, it's about 1,700 restaurants today." — Scott Boatwright (CEO)
Traffic outlook
Q (Danilo Gargiulo · Bernstein): Analyst asked if they can drive positive traffic even if market stays weak and what the building blocks are for traffic into 2027.
A: They said they've had positive transactions all 3 quarters and the Recipe for Growth is designed to drive demand across technology, execution, innovation, brand and group occasions. They are in early days of that strategy and have confidence the team can drive transactions in this environment.
"I think we've demonstrated for the past 3 quarters, we can do that." — Scott Boatwright (CEO)
Q4 margins and drivers
Q (Dennis Geiger · UBS): Analyst asked what else moves Q4 margins beyond marketing, including labor, promotions, and other items.
A: They said about 150 basis points year-over-year decline is driven half by a prior-year gift card benefit, about 30 basis points from ad/promo for Brisket, and the remainder from sales volume and mix. They expect 2026 margin around mid-23% and discussed a mid-24% baseline for 2027 assuming price offsets inflation and a 1 point transaction improvement to offset new restaurant openings.
"But taking a step back and really thinking about margins in total, that will get you -- based off of our guidance, it will get you to about a 2026 margin of somewhere in that like mid-23% range." — Adam Rymer (CFO)
Comp needed to stabilize margins
Q (Christopher O'Cull · Baird): Analyst asked what comp level stabilizes margin given inflation and if marketing spend will stay elevated into 2027.
A: They said if pricing covers inflation, they need about 1 point of transaction growth to offset new restaurant openings; above that, 40% flows to margin. On marketing, they set a baseline around 3% of sales for next year but will flex up or down to where returns justify spend.
"We need about 1 point of trans to offset the impact of new restaurant openings." — Adam Rymer (CFO)
Restaurant refresh opportunity
Q (John Ivankoe · JPMorgan): Analyst asked how valuable remodels could be for older restaurants for employees and customers and how the refresh testing is progressing.
A: They said testing is underway in California, Texas, and Florida, focusing on modernizing legacy restaurants into more open, differentiated formats. Early signs are positive and they will provide more detail on the remodel strategy on the Q1 call.
"What we're looking to do is bring them up to date, more open format, more modern, more differentiated." — Scott Boatwright (CEO)
LTO mix next year
Q (Peter Saleh · U.S. Bank BTIG): Analyst asked how many 2027 LTOs will be new versus returning items.
A: They said the 2027 calendar will include some new innovations and tried-and-true favorites, with about 4 center-of-the-plate LTOs planned. They will also emphasize sides, dips, and more beverage innovation while keeping execution simple for restaurant teams.
"We have -- we're setting up the calendar to have about 4 center-of-the-plate LTOs." — Scott Boatwright (CEO)
Marketing run rate and pricing philosophy
Q (Andrew Charles · TD Cowen): Analyst asked if the ~3% marketing run rate is sustainable into 2027 and whether the 2% pricing rate is acceptable going forward.
A: They would not give quarter-to-quarter guidance but said low 3% is a planning baseline for next year and they will ebb and flow spend by opportunity. On pricing, they aim to use price measuredly to offset longer-term inflation and historically it's been closer to 2%, though that may not return in 2027.
"Primarily in the past, it's been closer to that 2% range." — Adam Rymer (CFO)
HEEP impact on comps
Q (Brian Harbour · Morgan Stanley): Analyst asked if HEEP comp lift is sustainable and how it will contribute in 2027.
A: They said HEEP is at about 1,700 restaurants but it takes months for comp lift to appear as teams and guests adjust. They expect the lift to continue building and have seen sustained comp lifts in the couple-hundred basis point range where it has been in place long enough.
"So as we talked about on the call or in the prepared comments, we're at about 1,700 restaurants." — Adam Rymer (CFO)
Delivery and channel shifts
Q (Jon Tower · Citi): Analyst asked what happened in delivery this quarter, channel shifts, and initiatives to build value in delivery.
A: They said delivery grew year-over-year but was the slowest digital channel; order ahead drove the most growth and Chipotlanes are pushing order ahead. Loyalty relaunch has helped, with 24 million members driving 33% of transactions and further work underway to drive demand through digital channels.
"But in all honesty, it was the least in terms of growth in the digital channels." — Adam Rymer (CFO)
Catering rollout scale
Q (Brian Bittner · Oppenheimer): Analyst asked if catering will be national and performance in pilots that justify scaling.
A: They said the upcoming rollout is more of a national rollout and they will add elements to scale the offering like third-party marketing, delivery and tech. Group occasions are 2%–3% of sales today and they aim for 1–2 points of growth year-over-year while protecting the core business experience.
"So it's more of a national rollout in the upcoming quarter," — Scott Boatwright (CEO)
International growth and company vs partner stores
Q (Gregory Francfort · Guggenheim): Analyst asked how many of the 15 to 25 planned international openings will be company-operated and what ramp to expect.
A: They said the 15 to 25 openings will be all partner-operated in regions where they already operate, while 340 to 360 will be equity owned in U.S., Canada and Western Europe. They noted partner plans in the Middle East, and openings in Singapore and Mexico City next year, with pace dependent on geopolitical and partner execution factors.
"So those 15 to 25 will be all partner-operated across the regions where we're open today." — Scott Boatwright (CEO)