CME GROUP INC earnings calls

Compute Futures launch timing

Q (Chris Allen · KBW): Are there hurdles to launching Compute Futures and is there client appetite? Also, any impact from hyperscalers and data centers on energy products?

A: Management said timing depends on the CFTC review; they are waiting for regulatory approval. They see strong client demand from neocloud players, data center operators, banks, funds and props, and selected Silicon Data as an IOSCO-compliant index provider.

"But I can say definitively this product has a significant amount of client demand, and the Street is eager to be able to access these." — Derek

24/7 trading for energy

Q (Patrick Moley · Piper Sandler): Why was the 10-barrel WTI filing withdrawn and what is the path/timeline to bring 24/7 energy back? Which other asset classes might go 24/7 next?

A: They withdrew the 10-barrel oil filing out of deference to commercial participants worried about staffing and costs and because they want assurance U.S. participants follow U.S. law. For broader 24/7 rollout, they say the U.S. banking and back-office infrastructure must support 24/7 to enable primary products to go round the clock.

"I think the bigger question is: What is the agency doing and what are others doing to make certain that U.S. participants are adhering to U.S. law?" — Terry Duffy (CEO·CHAIR)

Interest income change

Q (Alex Kramm · UBS): Why did net interest income fall more than expected quarter-over-quarter?

A: They said clearing house cash averages fell from about $150 billion in Q2 to $147 billion in Q3 with a similar return of about 33 basis points. Corporate cash earnings rose about $27 million and interest expense was relatively flat, so balance changes drove the net interest movement.

"So if you look at the cash at the clearing house, the average balances for the quarter were $147 billion in Q3." — Lynne Fitzpatrick

Pricing changes and S&P deal

Q (Dan Fannon · Jefferies): Detail the October pricing changes and implications from the Cboe-S&P licensing deal for your JV.

A: They said October pricing changes will annualize to roughly 0.5%-1% of clearing and transaction fees and affect crypto, parts of grains, interest rate tiers, and micro equities. On the Cboe deal, as JV partner they expect to benefit from escalations starting in 2027 and view it favorably though exact terms await disclosure.

"We are expecting, if you look at an annualized basis, those to have an impact of somewhere in the range of 0.5%-1% of the clearing and transaction fees." — Lynne Fitzpatrick

Single Stock futures distribution

Q (Michael Cyprys · Morgan Stanley): How are Single Stock futures being distributed and received? Any scope to add prediction markets for single stocks?

A: They reported a strong start with over 350,000 contracts and about $3.5 billion of notional, with global participation and distribution across retail and institutional partners. They said they will launch without prediction markets for now and may consider additional formats later once the product is established.

"We've done a little bit over 350,000 contracts since launch with about $3.5 billion of notional." — Tim McCourt

Perpetuals legal introduction

Q (Craig Siegenthaler · BofA): How should we weigh the perpetuals lawsuit against prior comments that clients aren't asking for perpetuals, and strategic implications?

A: Management introduced their General Counsel to address the legal matter and indicated legal counsel would speak to the case. They handed the discussion to the General Counsel to start.

"Our new General Counsel, John Marchese, is on the line." — Terry Duffy (CEO·CHAIR)

Perpetuals lawsuit status

Q (John Marchese): What is the status and timing of the perpetuals lawsuit and your confidence level?

A: They said a motion to dismiss was filed, CME opposed it, and they plan to brief the substance with the judge in December. They expressed confidence in their legal position and are awaiting the court's decision.

Would CME list perpetuals?

Q (Craig Siegenthaler · BofA): If perps were deemed futures in the U.S., would CME list perpetuals and potentially dominate equity index perps?

A: They said they will abide by the court's decision and decide later whether to list perpetuals. They reiterated their legal view that funding rates resemble swaps under Dodd-Frank and said they feel strongly about their position but will 'cross that bridge' if needed.

"Whatever the court decides, we will abide by the court's decisions, and we will move forward." — Terry Duffy (CEO·CHAIR)

Market data growth drivers

Q (Simon Clinch · Rothschild & Co Redburn): What are the secular drivers of the market data business and what normal growth should we expect?

A: They said market data was a record quarter, up 20% to $243 million, driven roughly one-third professional subscribers, one-third retail/sim platforms, and the remainder from data feeds, term software, pricing and policy changes. Over 50% of demand comes from outside the U.S., and they will not provide specific future growth guidance.

"One-third has been from our expanding professional subscriber base, and that's for our real-time market data." — Julie Winkler

Product launch pace and growth impact

Q (Dan Welden · Wells Fargo): Is the cadence of product launches increasing and does the 2% growth-from-new-products assumption still hold?

A: They said it's been a busy year with 368 new products year-to-date and advances in execution technology enabling faster launches across institutional and retail. They did not change guidance on how much new products contribute to growth and said they will continue to launch where client risk needs emerge.

"That is in addition to advances that we're making in our execution technology, where we're looking to introduce things like Treasury Link." — Julie Winkler

Capital priorities: buybacks vs M&A

Q (Bill Katz · TD Cowen): How do you prioritize buybacks versus inorganic opportunities given consolidation?

A: They noted completion of returning OSTTRA funds and said their capital return policy is flexible via variable dividends and repurchases. With very low debt, they have optionality for M&A but are selective and focus on deals that add clients, products, or capital efficiencies.

"So we set up our capital structure in a way that gives us a lot of optionality." — Lynne Fitzpatrick

Open interest vs volume trends

Q (Ken Worthington · JPMorgan): Why didn't open interest grow more despite strong volume, and how does that affect 2027 volume outlook?

A: They said open interest remains at lofty levels but is less directly comparable today because many more short-term expirations exist (weekly options etc.), so OI doesn't build the same way it did years ago. That structural change explains the apparent disconnect between volume velocity and OI growth.

"Our open interest has been sitting at very lofty levels for a long time, and the reason why I think that is more impressive today than it was as little as five years ago is because we didn't have some of these option products that expire in short-term basis like we do today." — Terry Duffy (CEO·CHAIR)

Treasury Link status and value

Q (Ben Budish · Barclays): Any early feedback on Treasury Link and how to think about the market opportunity and economics?

A: They described Treasury Link as an industry-first connecting Treasury futures and BrokerTec cash Treasuries on Globex, eliminating legging risk and enabling guaranteed execution. It's live in the new release environment, clients are testing, and they've seen strong demand from existing and prospective participants.

Perpetuals, leverage and retail tools

Q (Mike · Deutsche Bank): If equity index perpetuals were approved, would they pose systemic risk and do retail have enough tools now without perps?

A: They said their systemic risk comment targeted high leverage (25x to 250x) traded on some overseas platforms, not U.S. markets. They will wait to see any formal proposals on leverage caps before updating views. They consider Single Stock futures useful for both retail and institutional participants.

NHL FutureSports early traction

Q (Brian Bedell · RBC): Early traction for NHL FutureSports indices — institutional vs retail and expected runway?

A: They said it's early season and only a few weeks in, but the product is built to IOSCO principles. They are working to bring institutional clients and also developing individual-sized contracts with retail partners so smaller participants can access and hedge.

$100B margin efficiencies drivers

Q (Will Qi · Morgan Stanley): What drove the increase to $100 billion of margin efficiencies and what could move it higher at flat volumes?

A: They said the savings are broad-based across asset classes: swaps portfolio margining hit a Q3 record with daily savings around $14 billion, CME FICC cross-margin is ramping with 24 clearing members, and equity savings were roughly $47 billion driven mainly by new positions moved to CME.

Retail platforms launching own products

Q (Michael Cyprys · Rothschild & Co Redburn): If retail platforms/FMCs launch their own products, how will relationships evolve and could they steer volume to in-house products?

A: They said retail alone does not generate durable open interest; CME's value is its ecosystem of institutional liquidity and the capital efficiencies that are hard to replicate. They think retail-only trading against retail and props is not a sustainable long-term market model.