Oct 15, 2026 earnings call — Precast integration and West Virginia mill progress
Core EBITDA for fiscal 2026 rose to approximately $1.4 billion and core EBITDA margin expanded to 14.5%.
Revenue $2.7B (est $2.6B) · EPS $2.09 (est $1.95)
Key quotes
"Precast generated adjusted EBITDA of $57.1 million during the quarter and excluding the purchase accounting impact, has contributed roughly $150 million of adjusted EBITDA since our acquisition."
"We exited fiscal 26 with more than $250 million of gross run rate benefits achieved and a clear line of sight on an additional $100 million of run rate benefits by the end of fiscal 2027."
"For fiscal 2027, we anticipate capital expenditures to decline by nearly $200 million to roughly $400 million as we cycle past the elevated investment levels associated primarily with the West Virginia micro mill project."
Analyst Q&A 7
Precast EBITDA outlook and Korea imports
Q (Samuel McKinney · KeyBanc): He asked if annual run rate EBITDA of $240 million to $250 million is still the right target given soft Q3 and Q4, and about the drop and sustainability of South Korean rebar imports and possible government action.
A: They said the $240 million to $250 million target is still appropriate. They expect seasonal Q1 weakness, down mid- to high- single digits from Q4, and said nonresidential and infrastructure have helped fill the residential decline. They will monitor South Korean imports and believe current economics make those imports uncompetitive in the short term.
"And we think that it is a good target for this year." — Peter R. Matt (CEO)
Q1 drivers: EU credits and West Virginia costs
Q (Satish Kasinathan · BofA): He asked how the Q1 guide breaks down, specifically expected CO2 credits in Europe and the magnitude of West Virginia mill startup costs. He also asked about Virginia mill ramp timing and the prior 150 thousand to 300 thousand tons guidance.
A: They said Europe should see roughly $10 million to $15 million of CO2 credits, partly offset by higher energy costs of about $10 to $15 a ton. For West Virginia startup, they expect an extra $3 million to $5 million of incremental cost in Q1 (Q4 costs were about $9 million). For the Virginia mill, startup will occur over about 12 months and should breakeven after about 6 months, with production slightly under 200 thousand tons this year.
"we are expecting at this stage, you know, somewhere between $10 million and $15 million of CO2 credits." — Paul J. Lawrence (CFO)
Precast profit drivers and merchant bar mix
Q (Bill Peterson · JPMorgan): He asked why precast is behind in EBITDA despite sales, whether cost or mix issues explain the weaker profit, and whether they can shift more production to higher-margin MBQ/merchant bar.
A: They said the shortfall is mainly volume weakness in residential in the Southeast, not pricing, and integration work is still in progress so margins should improve. Bookings and backlog were rising and margins in the business stayed around 30%. On merchant bar, they see room to grow merchant shipments up to about 1 million tons, implying roughly 150 thousand to 200 thousand tons of incremental merchant shipments, and noted about 150 thousand tons of wire rod also supplements that target.
"So as we said in the prepared remarks, this is really about weakness in residential, and in the Southeast, and it is really about volume weakness." — Peter R. Matt (CEO)
Scrap pass-through and Europe drivers
Q (Timna Tanners · Wells Fargo): She asked if the recent jump in No. 1 heavy melt scrap to $27.50 will be fully passed through and the timing into the November quarter, and she asked how much Europe improvement is volume versus tariff effects.
A: They said the scrap move will be outpaced as it filters through, so they expect gradually improving ASPs and metal margins into the November quarter. For Europe, demand in Poland has been good but supply issues and earlier pre-buying around CBAM and safeguards created temporary effects; they expect margins to expand gradually and aim to return the business to a $100 million through-the-cycle level, focusing on margin improvement rather than volume growth.
"It will and we feel confident that as we go into the November quarter you are going to see a kind of a gradually improving top line from a ASP perspective and a gradually improving metal margins." — Peter R. Matt (CEO)
Analyst Day bridge and precast mix impact
Q (Nick Cash · Goldman Sachs): He asked how to bridge the $1.4 billion 2026 core EBITDA to the 2029 target of $1.65 billion to $1.8 billion, how much of that comes from West Virginia/Precast/TAG, and whether precast weakness changes the mix.
A: They said organic projects (West Virginia, merchant expansion, GalvaBar, GeoGrid, Arizona improvements, and precast growth) account for about $200 million of incremental EBITDA and support the 2029 targets. They said the precast weakness does not change their 2029 view and they remain confident in achieving the planned results.
"And Nick, can I just jump in on that to say you asked the question about does the precast softness change at all and I want to categorically say it does not?" — Peter R. Matt (CEO)
Fiscal 27 growth CapEx and buybacks
Q (Richard Garchitorena · Barclays): He asked which key growth projects make up the fiscal 27 growth CapEx and how that should affect 2028 and beyond. He also asked about capital allocation: buybacks versus keeping M&A dry powder.
A: They said most of the $100 million growth CapEx is for West Virginia, with GeoGrid and GalvaBar also in startup; GalvaBar commissioning is expected late in calendar 26 and West Virginia should breakeven about 6 months after startup. On capital return, they will keep dry powder for M&A but plan to accelerate share repurchases and enlarged the authorization to about $700 million, intending meaningful buybacks.
"The vast majority of the $100 million growth is West Virginia." — Paul J. Lawrence (CFO)
North America volumes and Europe margins/hedges
Q (Tristan Gresser · BNP Paribas): He asked expected percentage volume increase for North America given West Virginia and mix changes, and separately asked about Europe volume outlook, margins, and how they manage high energy costs and hedging.
A: They said North American demand is up over 4% year-to-date and the network can flex production; additional capacity in Arizona and West Virginia will help but they aim to keep supply and demand balanced. For Europe, demand is good and Polish utilization has been high; pricing moved with CBAM and safeguards and they expect inventory overhang to clear in about 4 to 6 months. They also said about 50% of their electricity is hedged under long-term purchase agreements, which helps competitiveness against rising energy costs.
"And so we have around 50% of our electricity hedged through long term purchase agreements." — Paul J. Lawrence (CFO)