Sep 29, 2026 earnings call — Yield gains and record customer deposits
Company beat guidance and delivered approximately $2 billion to the bottom line, exceeding guidance by $100 million.
Revenue $8.4B (est $8.4B) · EPS $1.43 (est $1.35)
Key quotes
"The improvement in booking trends we highlighted on our last call continued to build throughout the quarter with better closing demand translating into higher revenues."
"With the second pier now open, Celebration Key is expected to welcome approximately 3.5 million guests next year with 31 ships calling versus 26 this year."
"Third, the remaining $0.01 per share of favorability came from further improvements in fuel consumption, where we delivered a nearly 4% year-over-year reduction on top of the over 5% reduction in last year's third quarter as well as the full year 2025."
Analyst Q&A 12
Thoughts on resort deal and portfolio
Q (Robin Farley · UBS): The analyst asked if Carnival has any view on an all-inclusive Caribbean resort transaction and whether such a deal would make sense. They also asked to clarify the booking outlook wording for 2027 versus 2028.
A: Management would not comment on another company's transaction and focused on Carnival itself. They said the company is "laser-focused on improving our cruise business," that they run 8 brands, and that land assets are ancillary bolt-ons. They also clarified that 2027 occupancy and price are higher.
"We are just laser-focused on improving our cruise business." — Josh Weinstein (CEO)
Why bookings stayed strong; Europe vs Caribbean
Q (James Hardiman · Citi): The analyst asked why bookings were strong despite macro and geopolitical headlines and whether this is tied to the business model or consumer fatigue. They also asked about the shift toward Europe and any concern about Caribbean capacity in 2027.
A: Management said bookings inflected positively in June with further acceleration in July and August and that vacations remain important to consumers. They said Europe has been a growing part of the business, especially Northern Europe, and for the Caribbean they prefer no growth but remain committed and expect to work through capacity pressure.
"June was an inflection point in the booking momentum, and it was positive year-over-year, and then we saw a nice acceleration in both July and August." — Josh Weinstein (CEO)
Booking patterns and fuel hedging
Q (Brandt Montour · Barclays): The analyst asked whether booking patterns far out (into 2027) differ now compared with prior crises and which brands or cohorts show differences. They followed up asking if the company is reconsidering fuel hedging given fuel volatility.
A: Management said every crisis is different and that long-haul and exotic cruises were more challenged, but Europe bookings for next year strengthened and guests who delayed this year often plan to go next year. On hedging, they said hedging is not worth the cost to reduce volatility and they are focused on cutting fuel consumption instead.
"But the reduction in the volatility to us isn't worth paying banks or counterparties to effectuate those types of trades." — Josh Weinstein (CEO)
Yield outlook and onboard spending
Q (Amanda Douglas · JPMorgan): The analyst asked about puts and takes for normalized yield growth into 2027, including any booking constraints and benefits from destinations and modernization. They also asked about current onboard spending trends.
A: Management said Q1 has a different profile due to spring volatility but they like their deployment mix across Europe, Alaska and the Caribbean and feel good about the overall trajectory for 2027. They said onboard spending has accelerated and consumers remain strong, and reminded listeners to look at total revenue because bundles can shift revenue between ticket and onboard.
"And always with an asterisk because of the way we do packages and bundles and things of that nature, you always should look at the total revenue because of how things might fall between ticket and onboard." — Josh Weinstein (CEO)
Capacity growth plans and Q1 cadence
Q (Raymond Bowers · Wells Fargo): The analyst asked whether the company might expand capacity now that it is investment grade and what the long-term view on capacity is. They also asked if the exit rate into Q4 is the right way to think about Q1 yields.
A: Management said capacity growth is fixed for the next half decade and that any one-off opportunities would be considered, with longer term growth still fitting the 1 to 2 ships per year construct. On Q1 they declined to provide guidance now, noting Q1 has a different profile and they will discuss 2027 in December.
"Our capacity growth is pretty fixed for the next half decade." — Josh Weinstein (CEO)
Caribbean capacity and cost outlook
Q (Xian Siew Hew Sam · BNP Paribas): The analyst asked how to think about Caribbean capacity next year given some shifts and growing private destination visits, and whether that mix helps pricing. They also asked if costs into next year will differ from this year's cost control success.
A: Management said some changes reflect Princess moving out to Japan, which removes a premium brand and changes the mix, but the underlying core Caribbean capacity is consistent and Celebration Key and RelaxAway can flex more now that marine infrastructure is complete. On costs, management said there is nothing in particular notable for 2027 and they will continue to pursue sourcing and operating efficiencies.
"But generally speaking, for the Caribbean, we're pretty consistent in the actual underlying core capacity." — Josh Weinstein (CEO)
Onboard revenue drivers and Q4 yield
Q (Charles Scholes · Truist): The analyst asked how much of the 7% onboard and other revenue growth came from Celebration Key versus organic onboard spending, and how to think about that in the Q4 net yield guide.
A: Management said third quarter onboard revenue growth was broad-based across categories and brands and that bundled packages and prebooking (more than 50% prebooked) are helping onboard revenue. They said separating ticket and onboard moves is less meaningful now and pointed to their total yield guidance for the fourth quarter.
"So the third quarter onboard and revenue was really broad-based across all categories, and it was also across all brands on both sides of the Atlantic." — David Bernstein (CFO)
PROPEL targets and earnings outlook
Q (Steven Wieczynski · Stifel): The analyst asked whether the PROPEL targets implying about 20% annual earnings growth to 2029 are still realistic given risks like oil prices and geopolitical events. They also probed whether guidance for 2027 would start with a negative yield-cost spread.
A: Management said operationally the year looks strong given the backdrop but fuel is uncertain and they cannot predict it. They emphasized they can control and reduce consumption to help earnings and that teams must be innovative on demand and costs; they expect to fit the PROPEL algorithm but would not answer forward guidance specifics.
"I do know we can control consumption well and continue to drive that down, which is part of how we're going to improve the earnings profile." — Josh Weinstein (CEO)
Europe opportunity and one-time costs
Q (Benjamin Chaiken · Mizuho): The analyst asked about the shift to European deployment and cooler-weather itineraries versus beach vacations and the modeling implications. They also asked if this year included roughly 130 to 150 basis points of one-time costs that may not recur next year.
A: Management said Europe, especially Northern Europe, is on many guests' wish lists and provides a range of itineraries that have been beneficial and should continue to be so. On one-time items, management said there was probably a little over 1 point of such items and noted Celebration Key operated the full year while Half Moon Cay had a half year, and next year has more dry docks that may shift costs.
"Probably a little over, yes, a little over 1 point." — David Bernstein (CFO)
CapEx run rate and mix benefit
Q (Conor Cunningham · Melius): The analyst asked what a normalized non-newbuild CapEx profile looks like now that new builds are limited and whether the $2.4 billion non-newbuild CapEx in 2026 is structural. They also asked if Europe mix yields a modeling benefit.
A: Management said they are not giving 2027 CapEx guidance now but that non-newbuild CapEx for 2026 is $2.4 billion and they expect a step-up next year because of more Evolution ships in dry dock. They added they expect somewhat higher than $2.4 billion for the next few years and that deployment shifts are made to optimize guest demand and profitability.
"our non-newbuild CapEx for 2026 is $2.4 billion." — David Bernstein (CFO)
Private destinations and cost trajectory
Q (Elizabeth Dove · Goldman Sachs): The analyst asked if the company plans to expand private destinations like Celebration Key, RelaxAway, and Isla Tropicale over the long term. They also asked about the timing of the decelerating cost growth mentioned in PROPEL guidance.
A: Management said small improvements may be possible for Isla Tropicale and RelaxAway, but Celebration Key is maxed in the current land build and Phase 2 is possible though premature to discuss. On costs, management said some savings have been pulled forward and they will provide specific cost guidance when they discuss 2027.
"Celebration Key, we are certainly maxed out in the current build that we've got on the land side, and we have the ability to build more, and we've talked about that in a pretty theoretical way with you all before." — Josh Weinstein (CEO)
2027 yield expectations and guidance
Q (Assia Georgieva · Infinity): The analyst asked whether 2027 yield improvement might be above the historical 2% benchmark given the record comment in the release and the Europe shift. They noted a small yield increase could technically be a record and wanted clarity.
A: Management declined to give more guidance on 2027 on the call and said they will discuss 2027 in three months when they provide formal guidance. They thanked participants and praised the team for their work.
"I appreciate you giving it one last shot for the team on trying to get us to give more guidance, but we're not going to." — Josh Weinstein (CEO)