Oct 29, 2026 earnings call — Portfolio forecast adjustment and originations growth
Forecasted net cash flows declined by 2.5%, or $291 million, while loan dollar volume increased 51% to $1.4 billion.
Revenue $0.6B (est $0.6B) · EPS $13.01 (est $12.86)
Key quotes
"The change reduced forecasted collection rates for consumer loans assigned from 2022 through 2026 to the levels we now expect over the lives of those loans."
"As you heard, consumer loan assignment unit volume was over 110,000, an increase of 38% year-over-year, a significant acceleration versus last quarter when volume declined by 1%."
"We set out to transform Credit Acceptance into a deeply data-informed, AI-enabled company while maintaining a disciplined approach to risk and capital allocation."
Analyst Q&A 2
Write-down effect on yield; dealer growth
Q (Moshe Orenbuch · TD Cowen): He first asked to confirm the write-down was unrelated to the litigation. He also asked how the write-down should be modeled going forward and whether adjusted yield will be lower, and he asked about impacts on originations from dealer changes.
A: They confirmed the write-down was not related to the litigation. They said adjusted results spread the forecast adjustment over the life of the vintages and better reflect performance, while GAAP (CECL) forces taking the charge up front. They also said the adjustment will take approximately 2.5% on a book of $12 billion over time, will spread over coming quarters, and that new volume, better pricing, and dealer-channel changes are helping originations.
"The GAAP results are a little bit misleading because it requires you to take everything up front per the CECL rules." — Joe Billante (CFO)
Why collections underperformed; scorecard confidence
Q (Robert Wildhack · Autonomous): He asked where the underperformance in collections came from — specific FICO bands, income, or vehicle type — and asked how the company can be confident the scorecard is now correct.
A: They said the underperformance showed up in their lowest-scoring internal risk bands, not specifically by public FICO bands. They said prepayments were not a material driver and most of the adjustment relates to loans originated before the recent scorecard changes. They added the business has margin of safety, they have adjusted forecasts (250 basis points for Jan–June 2026 cohort versus 90 basis points for Q3), and they can now fine-tune scorecards faster with better visibility.