Oct 29, 2026 earnings call — Lending-driven profit growth, capital and AI update
Quarterly net attributable profit was basically EUR 3 billion plus; nine months net attributable profit was record EUR 9.07 billion.
Revenue $12.2B (est $12.1B) · EPS $0.61 (est $0.62)
Key quotes
"On the left-hand side, you can see the acceleration in our loan growth since December 2023, reaching more than 20% year-on-year in current euros at the end of last quarter."
"our CET1 ratio stood at 12.21% compared to 12.41% in June, the pro forma after deducting the EUR 2 billion extraordinary share buyback currently underway."
"our AI-powered voice assistant is achieving close to a 90% successful resolution rate in pilot interactions, while some of our first AI agents are reducing the time for the preparation of a financial program on the risk side for the enterprises by as much as 30%."
Analyst Q&A 16
Spain deposit cost driver
Q (Maksym Mishyn · JB Capital): How much of deposit growth in Spain was wholesale? Will loan growth force more wholesale funding and higher deposit costs? Also, what run rate for trading income in Spain?
A: Management said most of the deposit cost increase came from wholesale corporate deposits. They said retail demand deposits rose and retail cost pressure is small. Trading income was hit by rising interest rate curves and is volatile; they cannot give a firm run rate.
"The 13 basis points that you see as the cost of deposit increase in Spain, 13 basis points basically 10 of that increase has come from non-retail, which is mainly corporate." — Onur Genç (CEO)
Mexico loan growth and Spain deposit duration
Q (Miruna Chirea · Jefferies): Is Mexico lending growth likely to continue and has customer spread bottomed? For Spain, how short is the duration of the wholesale deposits that repriced quickly?
A: They said Mexico lending has been strong and likely beats guidance around 10%; they think margins have bottomed given the Central Bank rate at 6.5%. On Spain wholesale deposits, the duration is very short and repricing happens quickly, so further ECB moves could affect costs.
"On the pricing of deposits and duration of deposits in Spain, so wholesale, which was the main increase this quarter, the duration is very short term." — Gonzalo Rodriguez (CFO)
Capital target and RoTE outlook
Q (Benjamin Toms · RBC): With SREP up 40 bps, will BBVA keep its 11.5–12% CET1 target or raise it? Will RoTE rise from 22% in 2027–28?
A: Management said they do not intend to raise their management CET1 target and highlighted their strong, low-volatility profitability and buffer versus requirements. For RoTE, they did not give explicit future guidance but said their midterm plan implies further improvement in 2027 and 2028 to meet a 22% multi-year average.
"We have no intention to increase our management target for a specific reason." — Onur Genç (CEO)
Spain NII drivers and Turkey outlook
Q (Antonio Reale · BofA): What drove Spain NII and any hedging effects? How will Spanish NII evolve? For Turkey, will NII recover and is the worst of asset quality behind us?
A: They said Spanish loan volumes are growing strongly and margins should slightly improve; mortgage repricing timing means recent ECB rate moves have not fully hit loan yields yet. For Turkey, macro was worse than expected so asset quality and cost of risk will be somewhat higher than prior guidance, but higher NII will compensate and they remain confident in the year's guidance.
"In our mortgage book, 2/3 of our mortgage book is repriced every 6 months and 1/3 every year." — Onur Genç (CEO)
CIB loan growth and risk controls
Q (Francisco Riquel · Alantra): Rest-of-business CIB loans grew fast; what sectors and how do you control risk (e.g., AI/data center exposure)? Does 100% L/D constrain growth?
A: They said 100% L/D for BBVA S.A. is not a constraint thanks to multiple funding sources and that CIB growth is strategic and selective. CIB income is largely client-driven (not prop trading), much business is cross-border and project finance for data centers is typically backed by investment-grade hyperscalers, so they feel exposures are controlled.
"90% of our CIB income, 90 9-0 is client revenues." — Onur Genç (CEO)
Spanish deposit mix and rate sensitivity
Q (Alvaro de Tejada · Morgan Stanley): Was the term deposit increase a lumpy wholesale move and will it reverse? How should we model deposit mix and rate sensitivity? Also, has Mexico customer spread bottomed?
A: They said Spain's NII sensitivity is plus/minus 4% for a 100 basis point curve move and they expect customer spread to improve slightly. For Mexico, they believe the customer spread has bottomed and should rise, excluding mix effects.
"we keep our rate sensitivity, NII sensitivity in Spain to plus/minus 4% to 100 basis points movement in the curve." — Gonzalo Rodriguez (CFO)
Capital uses and SRTs
Q (Sofie Caroline Peterzens · Goldman Sachs): On the EUR 36 billion payout guidance and CET1: can you improve CET1 via SRTs and keep payouts? Where are you gaining market share?
A: They reiterated commitment to the EUR 36 billion of distributions while noting more than EUR 13 billion may go to growth; SRTs are an active lever and Q4 should show a larger SRT benefit. They also said they are gaining market share in the most profitable segments in Spain and in wholesale and consumer in Mexico.
Where market share is being gained
Q (Sofie Caroline Peterzens · Goldman Sachs (follow-up)): In which lending products are you gaining market share in Spain and Mexico? From which competitors?
A: They said in Spain they are growing in the most profitable segments: consumer and commercial, while mortgage share is declining. In Mexico they are growing overall, mainly in wholesale and also in consumer, despite fintech competition.
"On market shares in Spain, we are growing in the most profitable segments." — Gonzalo Rodriguez (CFO)
Regulatory headwinds and Danish compromise
Q (Ignacio Ulargui · BNP Paribas): Any regulatory RWA or operational risk headwinds for Q4? Update on the Danish compromise and its capital impact, and any implication for insurance in Mexico?
A: They said they do not expect regulatory headwinds in Q4. On the Danish compromise they have applied and are awaiting approval; the current CET1 impact would be marginal and the main benefit is for future growth without consuming much capital.
"In terms of the impact of the Danish compromise, the impact on the CET1 overall at the moment would be marginal." — Onur Genç (CEO)
EU securitization reform impact
Q (Andrea Filtri · Mediobanca): How will the recent EU securitization reform affect BBVA and SRT plans?
A: They said the new securitization framework will help BBVA more than many peers because of their higher RWA density, making SRTs more beneficial. The reform should facilitate SRT execution and they expect to increase SRT use next year depending on markets.
"The framework, the new thing that was approved also in the past few weeks, it's going to help us even more." — Onur Genç (CEO)
Spain asset quality and NII growth
Q (Carlos Peixoto · CaixaBank): Spain had a small NPL uptick and cost of risk tick; is the 38 bps quarter a reference going forward? Any macro input changes? Also, is NII near lower or upper end of guidance?
A: They said the uptick was driven by seasonality and a reversal of a prior large portfolio sale plus a slight negative IFRS 9 impact from macro calibration (house price growth a bit slower than expected). At business-as-usual they expect stability and to deliver their low-30s cost of risk guidance; NII should continue improving with strong volumes and slight margin improvement.
"So that slight negative impact coming from macro calibration." — Onur Genç (CEO)
Floating loans and Euribor sensitivity
Q (Borja Ramirez Segura · Citi): What percent of loans in Spain are floating and how many deposits are index-linked? When will the bigger benefit from higher Euribor hit NII?
A: They said 44% of BBVA Spain loans are variable rate (60% for BBVA S.A. including rest of business). Deposits reprice quickly, mainly corporate short-term ones, and the key rate sensitivity is to Euribor 3-month and 6-month; most benefit will show up into Q4 and thereafter.
"In terms of the loans, 44% are variable rate loans in BBVA Spain." — Onur Genç (CEO)
Digital business in Italy and Germany
Q (Fernando Gil de Santivañes d´Ornellas · Intesa Sanpaolo): Update digital exposure in Italy and Germany: loans, deposits and clients?
A: They said Italy reached 1 million clients since launch five years ago and Germany passed 100,000 clients after launch in June 2025. Combined deposits from those two franchises are EUR 10.6 billion.
"We announced last week, we did a press release on this one that we reached 1 million clients in Italy, 1 million." — Onur Genç (CEO)
SREP NPL backstop treatment
Q (Britta Schmidt · Autonomous): Will the prudential provisioning add-on (NPL backstop) be deducted from capital or disappear? Was any effect in Q3 or should we model Q4?
A: They said the NPL backstop will be removed because they will deduct it from capital at year-end; the backstop has been declining via portfolio sales and should be marginal by December and therefore only a small effect on capital.
"Our expectation is that, that number will come down to a very marginal figure at the end of the year, at the end of December, and we will basically -- we have the commitment to take it out from the capital at the end of the year." — Onur Genç (CEO)
Deposit cost vs market share and NII floor
Q (Hugo Moniz Marques Da Cruz · KBW): Did you pay up for deposits to win loan market share, and are Q3 deposit/NII levels in Turkey and rest-of-business a new floor?
A: They said higher deposit costs were largely corporate and short-term repricing, not a willingness to pay up to fund loan growth; core retail deposit cost rose only a few basis points. They expect NII for both rest of business and Turkey to remain strong in Q4, with Turkey benefiting as rates start to come down.
NII outlook for Turkey and rest business
Q (Hugo Moniz Marques Da Cruz · KBW (follow-up)): Will NII in Turkey and the rest of business keep Q3 levels in Q4 or could they fall?
A: They said rest of business NII will remain good because prior strong loan growth translates into higher NII, and Turkey will see improving spreads as interest rates have begun easing, so both should show positive NII evolution in Q4.
"And for Turkey, interest rates have started coming down." — Onur Genç (CEO)