Aug 28, 2026 earnings call — Q2 results and outlook for lending recovery
BBVA Argentina reported inflation-adjusted net income of ARS 131.6 billion, a 44.6% quarter-over-quarter increase.
Revenue $0.6B (est $0.7B) · EPS $0.44 (est $0.35)
Key quotes
"Based on what we see today, we expect NPLs to stabilize and then gradually improve during the second half, ending the year at around 5.5%."
"Nowadays, both of them, if you take mortgages and car loans, they represent around 27% of that retail portfolio."
"More importantly, our capital position remains robust with a regulatory capital ratio of 18.8%, representing 128.7% excess over minimum regulatory requirements."
Analyst Q&A 5
Why asset quality worsened
Q (Brian Flores · Citi): Why did asset quality deteriorate despite cautious lending? And will cost of risk fall sequentially from 7.1% toward 6.5% in Q3 then Q4?
A: Management said corporate loans show no deterioration. The problems are in retail — personal loans and credit cards — and new vintages are performing better. They expect a slight improvement in Q3 and a clearer improvement in Q4 toward the 6.5% cost of risk average.
"So in the corporate segment, we see 0 deterioration." — Carmen Arroyo (CFO)
Improvement in new loan vintages
Q (Juliana Ohara · Goldman Sachs): How large is the improvement in early vintages? And do you have 2027 views for loan growth and ROE?
A: They said signals are still early but measurable. Credit card delinquencies fell from around 6% a year ago to near 2% to 2.2% this year, and payroll portfolios are back near December 2024 levels. For 2027, they expect system growth around 10% to 15% and BBVA to be above that, with more detail next quarter.
"But what we see is that from -- I don't know, from levels in credit cards of around 6% a year ago, we are near 2% to 2.2% this year." — Carmen Arroyo (CFO)
Mortgage mix and NIM outlook
Q (Eduardo Resende · UBS): Will retail mortgages grow and how important is the new government mortgage program for BBVA? Also, how will NIMs move in coming quarters and 2026?
A: They said retail (mortgages and car loans) should gain share and mortgages can grow faster; they have been selling approximately 20% of new originations and will participate in the government program. On margins, real NIM rose 70 basis points last quarter, but they expect historical NIMs to fall around 200 basis points by year-end and real NIM to fall around 100 or 125 basis points.
"Historical NIMs should fall around, we think, 200 basis points by year-end, but that will be partially offset by the fall in inflation." — Diego Cesarini
Using Stage 2 and USD loan rule impact
Q (Mario Estrella · Itaú): Can investors track Stage 2 to anticipate asset quality improvement? And your view on the rule letting banks grant USD loans up to 15% of deposits to non-USD clients?
A: They said yes — following stages gives useful early color on retail improvement. On the USD rule, they welcome it but already had some capacity and will use it case by case; they do not expect massive use and their foreign currency liquidity is where they want it. They also confirmed guidance: loans around 10%, cost of risk 6.5% for the full year, and ROE in the low teens.
"So if we follow stages, of course, they will give us also some color on the better performance of the portfolio, and it is that way." — Carmen Arroyo (CFO)
Deposit growth and public bond exposure
Q (Lisandro Lloveras · One618): What deposit growth do you expect for full-year 2026? And will public sector bond exposure keep growing?
A: They said funding is comfortable and deposit growth will depend on asset-side opportunities; as a figure they could be around 5% to 10%. On public bonds, recent growth is partly temporary; they bought bonds they view as valuable (floating/dual bonds), at least 2/3 of the portfolio is those bonds and they keep some short-term holdings for liquidity.
"So to give you a figure, maybe it will depend on the system, but we could be around 5% to 10%, something similar to that." — Carmen Arroyo (CFO)