Oct 27, 2026 earnings call — Free cash flow targets and production ramp update
Boeing expects approximately $2 billion of free cash flow in 2026, rising to about $3 billion in 2027.
Revenue $24.2B (est $23.9B) · EPS $-0.34 (est $-0.25)
Key quotes
"We have narrowed our range and expect to generate approximately $2 billion of free cash flow in 2026, I am expecting that will improve to about $3 billion in 2027."
"On 737, we continue to work towards stabilizing production at 47 airplanes per month. Our factory's key performance indicators are performing well, particularly in the final assembly where we have seen a 40% improvement in rework since the start of last year."
"Last month, we achieved a transformational win that will shape the company for decades to come when the US Navy selected Boeing as the winner of the FA XX competition."
Analyst Q&A 14
2027 cash flow drivers
Q (Myles Walton · Wolfe): They asked whether the advances in 2027 are abnormal and for more detail on the $3 billion expansion in 2028 and how 777X timing fits.
A: Management said the $700 million DOJ payment does not repeat in 2027. They expect BCA improving cash margins, continued BDS and BGS growth, and lower customer deposits versus a record 2026; CapEx will be $5 billion. Looking to 2028–2029, legacy drags should abate and higher production and deliveries (mid to high fifties, about 12 per month on 787) should drive further free cash flow.
"As you mentioned, Myles, the DOJ payment does not repeat in 2027." — Jesus Malave Jr.
unit costs and margin timing
Q (Seth Seifman · JPMorgan): They asked what supply chain and rate-related cost growth is and how that affects unit cash profitability and the timing to get past legacy drags on unit revenue.
A: Management said BCA margins were hit by rate adjustments and higher supply chain costs, and abnormal costs on the 777 and 767 will carry into Q4 and the first half next year but should abate. They expect cost-based extensions, higher-price backlog and higher volumes to drive significant improvement in the back half and to position BCA around breakeven in early 2028. These impacts are already contemplated in the cash flow projections and they are confident in improving margins on 737 and 787.
"When you take into account the benefit of cost based extensions at a higher price backlog, and other performance with the higher volumes, we will make some significant improvement in the back half of the year." — Jesus Malave Jr.
fuel prices and demand
Q (Sheila Kahyaoglu · Jefferies): They asked how higher oil/fuel prices affect airlines and Boeing's backlog, what customer signals Boeing watches, and what oil price is assumed in the free cash flow outlook.
A: Management said they are in constant contact with customers and that impact varies by airline. They noted a large portion of backlog is for replacement aircraft, which are more fuel efficient and can be pulled forward by high fuel prices. They have not seen customers replan order growth and did not state a specific oil price assumption.
"So for those customers who are bringing on new aircraft to replace older aircraft, these are much more fuel efficient." — Robert K. Ortberg (CEO)
deliveries and 777x timing risk
Q (David Strauss · Wells Fargo): They asked for detail on expected 737 and 787 deliveries, how many prebuilt dash-7/dash-10 inventory units will liquidate, and how a slip of 777x from 2027 to 2028 could affect the $3 billion cash guide.
A: Management said they expect around 30 prebuilt dash-7 and dash-10 deliveries next year. If 777x certification slips and reduces deliveries (they mentioned a ballpark of 10 to 15 deliveries next year), they believe that could be absorbed within the $3 billion guide. They also said total BCA deliveries should be up 10% plus similar to this year and that they will give more program-level color in January.
"What I can tell you is think about total deliveries at BCA to be up 10% plus similar to this year." — Jesus Malave Jr.
timing to higher rates and taxes
Q (Scott Mikus · Melius): They asked why it will take roughly two years to reach the 2029 production and delivery rates and if any cash tax or interest assumptions apply by 2029.
A: Management said deliveries lag production and the reconciliation creates upside opportunity if deliveries match production in 2029. They said they do not expect taxes to start until the early 20 thirties and that cash interest will come down a bit with maturities but not be significant. That tax timing is already part of their planning.
"We will not start to have taxes kick in until the early 20 thirties." — Jesus Malave Jr.
wing production and Wichita status
Q (Doug Harned · Bernstein): They asked whether the wing drilling issue is resolved, where Wichita stands, and what other supply chain watch items remain before reaching 52 per month.
A: Management said engines are not the problem; wing flow enablers did not fully deliver so they are adding capacity and other fixes. Early signs are encouraging, but they are not yet stably producing wings to support 47 per month, so they must dwell on stability before the next rate increase. They also said fuselage ramp and synchronization with final assembly matter next, and they see no other systemic supply chain issues now.
"We are improving but we are not yet to where I can say we are stably producing wings to support the 47 a month rate." — Robert K. Ortberg (CEO)
Wichita ramp and BCA margin recovery
Q (Peter Arment · Baird): They asked for an update on Wichita/Spirit ramp metrics and whether BCA margins will return to historical levels by 2029 and how the margin recovery will progress.
A: Management said Wichita integration and safety/quality work are on plan but have slowed the ramp a bit, causing fuselage inventory to burn down faster; ramp plans are included in their forecast and they plan to stay stable at 47 longer before moving to 52. On margins, they said 737 margins will ramp but will not reach 2018 (’38) levels, while 787 margins by 2029 will exceed their 2018 levels, and overall this is a net benefit.
"What I could say there is on a 737, it will ramp up the margin profile, but will not reach what it was in 38 either on a percentage or absolute basis." — Jesus Malave Jr.
777 certification and schedule cushion
Q (Noah Poponak · Goldman Sachs): They asked whether Boeing is being conservative on 777 timing, how much schedule cushion is in the plan, and for detail on certification progress and flight test authorizations.
A: Management said they added management reserve after the prior reset to allow for schedule pressure and are driving to an earlier date, but they do not yet have full authorization for the flight test program. They said FAA and Boeing test teams have completed work on the dash-7 and dash-10, which should free resources for 777 test work, and there are still major flight tests and authorizations ahead.
"I will also say that I think we now know after the dash 7 and dash 10 what it takes to get certification complete in this new post-MAXA world of regulation." — Robert K. Ortberg (CEO)
CapEx 2028–2029 and percent of revenue
Q (Noah Poponak · Goldman Sachs): They asked for the capital plan for 2028 and 2029 and whether higher CapEx as a percent of revenue is structural or temporary.
A: Management said CapEx for 2027 is about $5 billion and 2028 and 2029 would be around $4 billion each. They expect normalized CapEx as a percent of revenue to be higher than 2% and to settle around '3 plus 3% to 4%' on a normalized basis over time.
"It will it will be kinda 3 plus 3% to 4% is the right way to look at it on a normalized basis out in the future." — Jesus Malave Jr.
long-term endpoint beyond 2029
Q (John Godin · Citi): They asked whether the ultimate long-term earnings/cash flow 'north star' beyond 2029 has changed, or if the endpoint and slope are still the same.
A: Management said they do not believe the long-term endpoint has changed and that they expect significant growth beyond 2029. They added there is runway to reach higher rates (63 and 14 on the 787) and one executive characterized the change as roughly a one-year shift to the right rather than a change in the ultimate endpoint.
"I think both Kelly's and my comments both said the same thing, which was we expect significant growth beyond 2029." — Jesus Malave Jr.
defense wins and BDS growth
Q (Ron Epstein · BofA): They asked how the NGAD and F/A-XX wins change BDS growth and margin outlook, and whether FA XX is fixed price or another contract type.
A: Management said defense revenue growth should be higher than prior expectations, toward high middle single-digit or higher, and that new programs are being underwritten with appropriate contract types so they avoid past issues. For contract type, they said NGAD is cost-plus and they would not disclose the FA XX contract type but described it as an appropriate contract type.
"And the FA XX, I cannot say, but I just say it is an appropriate contract type." — Robert K. Ortberg (CEO)
new single-aisle airplane plans
Q (Gavin Parsons · UBS): They asked whether Boeing is planning a new single-aisle airplane and if the free cash guide assumes higher R&D or CapEx for that program.
A: Management said nothing has changed on the outlook for a new airplane and they have a product development team working to define timing and market need. They said any investment required for that work is already contemplated in the cash outlook and that R&D/tech development investments will shift as 737 and 777 development programs finish.
"So really nothing's changed on our outlook on new airplane." — Robert K. Ortberg (CEO)
deferred production shape
Q (Gautam Khanna · TD Cowen): They asked how deferred production balances across 737, 787, and 777x change next year and through 2028–2029 and when they become cash sources.
A: Management declined to give program-level balances but said on 737 and 787 the deferred production use of cash should flatten next year and then become sources of cash in 2028 and 2029. The 777x deferred production balances will grow early as deliveries begin, but overall improved profitability on 737 and 787 will drive working-capital benefits from deferred production reductions.
"On a 737 and 787, they essentially start to flatten out." — Jesus Malave Jr.
why confident in cash guidance
Q (Robert Stallard · Vertical Research Partners): They asked what changed in Boeing's outlook and operations that gives confidence to provide the free cash flow guidance.
A: Management said they have spent years taking on and resolving major challenges, significantly reducing portfolio risk and improving defense program underwriting. They also pointed to production ramp progress (from strike-era zero to 38) and better control over development programs, and said they now feel they have a better handle on risk and can provide an outlook they can meet.
"We have significantly reduced the risk of this portfolio." — Robert K. Ortberg (CEO)