ASML HOLDING N V earnings calls

capacity expansion beyond 30%

Q (Joe Quatrochi · Wells Fargo): Analyst asked how much capacity ASML can add beyond the 30% mentioned and what they can do in 2027 versus prior guidance. He also asked for more detail on value-based pricing and the gross margin trajectory.

A: Management said they are working hard to increase capacity now, in 2027 and in 2028 but would not give new numeric guidance for 2027 or 2028. They said opportunities are easier to enable later, mostly in 2028, and they continue to try to get extra capacity.

"I will not give new numbers for 2027 or 2028 because it is far too early to give those number." — Christophe D. Fouquet (CEO)

pricing scope and backlog

Q (Krish Sankar · TD Cowen): Analyst asked if there is a natural ceiling to EUV output given supplier pace and whether customers are inflating forecasts to secure slots. He also asked whether value-based pricing applies across systems, services, parts, and whether backlog is repriced.

A: Management said they are optimizing factory footprint, shortening cycle time, and do not see Zeiss as a bottleneck; they validate demand with customers and believe demand signals are real. On pricing, they said they increased prices for the most critical, high-value, high-volume products and upgrades will follow that pattern; the effect starts in 2027 and is larger from 2028.

supply chain and margin impact

Q (JPMorgan): Analyst asked about supplier capacity, whether ASML needs to pay suppliers to add capacity, and how the supply chain will support 2028 given no new ASML factory capacity until 2029. He also asked whether price increases will flow to gross margin.

A: Management said the main supply-chain challenge is ramping suppliers and they have confidence suppliers can follow the demand; they are adding suppliers for noncritical parts and work closely with critical partners. On gross margin, they said Q4 margin is a bit lower due to ramp costs and that price increases are largely accretive but some of the increase must cover extraordinary ramp and supply-chain costs.

"So on the first 1, the gross margin in Q4, a little bit lower from Q3." — Roger J. Dassen (CFO)

order commitments and accepting early POs

Q (Francois Bourvignet · UBS): Analyst asked whether ASML will change contracting (more prepayments, firmer orders) given the capacity shortage, and whether ASML is considering accepting early orders for 2029–2030.

A: Management said a PO with ASML is a serious commitment that includes a meaningful down payment and that customers do not sign frivolously. They are receiving customer requests to accept 2029–2030 POs but want to mirror total demand against expected capacity first, to avoid locking out customers unfairly before accepting long-dated orders.

"If you put an order with ASML, that is not a frivolous piece of paper that you put your name under." — Roger J. Dassen (CFO)

down payments and new customers

Q (Lee Simpson · Morgan Stanley): Analyst noted a big quarter-on-quarter rise in non-current liabilities (down payments) and asked if that implies a large order intake in Q3 and whether the interest for 2029–2030 is coming from new customers.

A: Management confirmed non-current liabilities include down payments and can be a lagging proxy for order intake. They said interest for 2029–2030 is broad across customers, not just one big new customer, and they are seeing new customers adopt low-NA EUV especially in DRAM and also similar trends for High-NA.

"So in that way, it is a interesting gauge of, you know, of how order intake is developing." — Roger J. Dassen (CFO)

immersion throughput and pricing

Q (Alexander Duval · Goldman Sachs): Analyst asked what reaching 330 wafers per hour for immersion means for pricing in 2028 and whether ASPs may step up like past EUV innovations. He also asked whether demand mix is shifting from memory to a more balanced logic and memory.

A: Management said they will bring different immersion products to 330 wafers per hour early next year and value scales with throughput, so higher throughput is an opportunity for value, margin, and pricing and also increases customer capacity. They also said memory demand has risen much (about 75% increase) and logic remains important, with advanced logic growing over 25%, so memory is getting closer to logic but logic still outweighs total next year.

"We are going to bring the different immersion product to 330 wafers per hour." — Christophe D. Fouquet (CEO)

customer clean rooms and China exposure

Q (Chris Caso · Wolfe): Analyst asked if customer clean room space limits their ability to add tools and capacity into 2028 and what that implies for 2029. He also asked whether China will remain about 20% of systems revenue next year.

A: Management said there are some small tactical timing moves but overall customers are ramping cleanrooms quickly and ASML verifies space before allocating tools to avoid long waiting. They said the intrinsic demand in China is strong with many fabs coming online and expect China demand to remain strong this year and beyond.

"So we do a lot of work to make sure that in all the plans we have at ASML, we do not have a delay of more than a few days or weeks, I would say, in shipping our product." — Christophe D. Fouquet (CEO)

future price increases and China competition

Q (Tammy Qiu · Berenberg): Analyst asked if ASML expects to be able to negotiate price increases every year if tightness continues. She also asked whether a lower-end immersion tool by 2029 could force ASML to lower prices or margins in China.

A: Management said annual price increases are not the plan; these pricing conversations were mature and about fairness and capturing value, not something to repeat every year. On China, management said Chinese customers want to work with ASML, current market access matters, and they see low likelihood of major competition emerging soon.

"And, Tammy, as you know, 1 of the key objectives for us in the pricing conversation is to make sure that we never depart from the concept of value based pricing." — Roger J. Dassen (CFO)

visibility for 2029–2030 demand mix

Q (Stéphane Houri · ODDO BHF): Analyst asked whether the 2029–2030 demand visibility is driven mainly by memory, logic, or both, and whether DRAM demand is geographically concentrated.

A: Management said both memory and logic are needed to make AI chips and they are discussing with both types of customers; DRAM is a bit more aggressive in buildup but interest is seen in both. On the geographic question, they clarified the DRAM discussion referenced EUV and thus excludes China.

"I think you need both memory and logic to get some AI chips." — Christophe D. Fouquet (CEO)