Oct 22, 2026 earnings call — Accelerating European can-line investments
Company upgraded 2026 full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to between $785 million and $795 million.
Revenue $1.7B (est $1.5B) · EPS $0.08 (est $0.08)
Key quotes
"These 2 investments will lead to an increase of total growth CapEx from $90 million in 2026 to approximately $250 million in 2027 before returning to a more normalized level in 2028."
"So there's a little bit on the freight side, but we have a very good recovery here and pass-through mechanisms -- there's also a little bit on the energy side, probably more so in Europe."
"Beverage can industry demand remains resilient across each of our markets, driven by strength in key categories and continued share gains in the packaging mix."
Analyst Q&A 6
Americas volumes and capacity plans
Q (Arun Viswanathan · RBC): He asked where in the Americas the company sees strength in volumes and whether inflation or customer promotions could change demand. He also asked if capacity expansion or a possible sale process could affect capacity plans or lead to the network being split.
A: Management said inflation exists but they are not seeing a negative volume impact and cans remain efficient for promotions. They highlighted strength in energy and CSD, weakness in beer, and that Brazil is still mostly beer but long-term positive for cans. They also said they are not commenting on the sale process and that capacity plans are independent of that process.
"No, I mean, I think we already have inflation in the system, and we're not seeing any particular negative impact." — Oliver Graham (CEO)
Brazil volumes and cost inflation
Q (Matthew Roberts · Raymond James): He asked if Brazil's results came from a customer contract reset or general demand and why 2027 outlook is lower than long-term. He also asked how inflation on costs tracked since July and if impacts differ by region.
A: Management said most of the Brazil change is due to a contract reset and that without the reset they would be at or above market growth. On costs they said inflation is slightly more negative than at Q2 mainly because oil and the Middle East outlook are worse, with a majority of impact in Europe and coatings linked to oil; Stefan noted freight and energy effects, pass-throughs, and hedging coverage into 2027 and beyond.
"So most of this is about the contract reset." — Oliver Graham (CEO)
Q4 EBITDA and coatings cost impact
Q (Joshua Spector · UBS): He asked why Q4 EBITDA guidance is lower despite modest volume growth and whether this is due to incremental inflation or timing effects. He also asked how big coatings are as a percentage of COGS and for a range.
A: Management said Q4 laps a very strong prior Q4, and the headwinds are FX, timing effects on metal and freight hedges, and inflation on coatings. They said coatings are single-digit of COGS but when oil jumps they become meaningful because they are bought in volume and are passed through within the year, so they are a material headwind into Q4 and 2027.
"But when the oil price spikes like this, it's very meaningful, and we do buy a lot of them." — Oliver Graham (CEO)
Cost savings and early volume trends
Q (Nicholas Sherwood · BofA): He asked where the company can find extra savings to offset inflation through year-end and into next year. He also asked about early volume trends for Q4 and early 2027.
A: Management said they pursue productivity and efficiency across many areas: lightweighting cans, reducing spoilage, using capacity better, cutting SG&A, and active procurement. They expect pass-throughs and customer pricing to start mitigating costs but still see some 2027 impact. On volumes they said the beverage can industry looks strong globally, with good growth in Europe and North America and a long-term positive trend in Brazil despite short-term ups and downs.
"We have every year very stretched targets on the plants for reducing spoilage and running more efficiently and using capacity more effectively." — Oliver Graham (CEO)
Capacity expansion and refinancing
Q (Niccolo Piccini · Truist): He asked if current capacity expansion plans across regions will be enough to meet demand and if tight capacity could invite new entrants. He also asked about upcoming debt maturities and possible impact on 2027 interest expense.
A: Management said Europe is struggling to keep up with demand and the market should stay tight for at least 2, 3 years; they see scale advantages for incumbents and do not expect new entrants to be a major threat. On financing they said they are proactively reviewing maturities, noted '28 maturities are next in line, and that any refinancing would likely be at a higher cost depending on timing and the market tapped.
"I mean, I think Europe, we're all struggling to follow the demand is my impression." — Oliver Graham (CEO)
Contract renewals and Brazil can substitution
Q (Anthony Pettinari · Citi): He asked whether 2027 is an above- or below-average year for contract renewals across regions after the transition year. He also asked about substitution from glass to cans in Brazil.
A: Management said 2027 looks like a below-average year for contract turnover, noting North America had big contract resets in '24 and '25 that affected '26 and can help 2027. On Brazil they said the long-term move from 2-way glass to one-way cans is intact, the major brewer had controlled the glass float and caused temporary shifts, but Q3 showed a push into metal and the off-trade and they expect a long-term mid-single-digit growth rate for the market.
"So I think North America, in particular, we went through those big contract resets in '24, '25 -- and as you say, that had some impact on '26." — Oliver Graham (CEO)