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ALLISON TRANSMISSION HLDGS I earnings calls

ALSN · every analyst question and management's answer

Nov 2, 2026 earnings call — Allison becomes integrated propulsion systems provider

Allison's third-quarter net sales were $1.534 billion, a 121% year-over-year increase.

Revenue $1.5B (est $1.5B) · EPS $2.90 (est $2.32) · Next-quarter revenue outlook $6.0B–$6.1B

Key quotes

"As a combined company, Allison is moving up the value chain, transitioning to a full scale integrated propulsion systems provider capable of designing, validating, and delivering complete optimized propulsion systems."

— David S. Graziosi (CEO·CHAIR) · Integrated propulsion portfolio

"Third quarter net sales were $1.534 billion an increase of 121% year over year."

— David S. Graziosi (CEO·CHAIR) · Quarter sales and end markets

"Our net income guidance for 2026 includes approximately $125 million of 1-time pretax expenses associated with the separation integration, and restructuring of the Allison Off-Highway business unit."

— Scott A. Mell (CFO) · 2026 guidance and one-time costs

Analyst Q&A 7

channel inventory and demand drivers

Q (Robert Wertheimer · Melius): Where does channel inventory stand now? Is current demand a prebuy or real replacement demand that will continue into next year?

A: Management said OEM dealer lots do not have many trucks and most bodybuilder backlog has been worked through, so channel inventory is somewhat normalized. They do not see this as prebuy; fleets are aged and there is pent-up demand that should continue into Q4 and into 2027. Class 8 vocational demand is robust driven by infrastructure spend.

"We really do not see this necessarily as a prebuy activity." — G. Frederick Bohley (COO)

longer-term margin outlook

Q (Timothy Thein · Raymond James): How do you think about the underlying margin performance longer term for the combined company, after the Off-Highway acquisition and synergies?

A: Management noted they delivered 26%-plus EBITDA margins in the third quarter and said they are positive about continuing to grow the combined business' margin profile. They also said they were price-cost positive on a consolidated basis in the quarter but are seeing material cost increases that affect timing of recoveries; volume, synergies, and easing inflation are upside opportunities.

"we remain you know, very positive relative to our ability to continue to grow the margin profile of the combined business" — Scott A. Mell (CFO)

electrification demand and product focus

Q (Ian Zaffino · Oppenheimer): Are you seeing acceleration in electrification adoption? Which voltage ranges and what costs or investments will be needed to transition?

A: Management said the combined portfolio now covers low to high voltage and they are focused on lower voltage because that is where demand is. They are not seeing acceleration in high-voltage adoption, are keeping development work and OEM relationships active, and are timing investments to market development while combining R&D capabilities across the portfolio.

"for us working across that spectrum from low to high, I think to your question, we are very much focused on the lower voltage range right now simply because that is where the demand is" — David S. Graziosi (CEO·CHAIR)

drivers of 2027 margins

Q (Jerry Revich · Wells Fargo): What are the main moving pieces for margins in 2027 versus 2026 (pricing, synergies, other big items)?

A: Management said they expect incremental volume in 2027, positive price-cost on a consolidated basis, and confidence in delivering synergies. They noted commodity costs, especially steel and aluminum, have been a headwind and cost-reduction initiatives exist; the ATBU was price-cost positive in the quarter and they expect to be price-cost positive in 2027.

"And, Jerry, specific to the ATBU, I mean, we were clearly you know, price cost positive in the quarter." — G. Frederick Bohley (COO)

SG&A level and cost initiatives

Q (Angel Castillo Malpica · Morgan Stanley): Why was legacy Allison SG&A around 7% of sales in Q3? Is that a run rate or were there onetime items? Are cost reduction initiatives beyond the $120m synergies affecting SG&A?

A: Management said investments like doubling the India Chennai plant increase capacity and reduce cost, and many purchase, engineering, and resourcing activities are in flight to take cost out. They moved some corporate costs into a Central Group function, see positive SG&A trends and warranty improvement, and said the 7% SG&A number is probably a reasonable estimate going forward while they optimize cost structure.

"But specific to the question, I think, you know, the 7% number is probably you know, a good estimate for you as you go forward." — Scott A. Mell (CFO)

defense capacity and order book

Q (Kyle Menges · Citi): What defense capacity investments have you made or plan to make, can Dana facilities help, and what does a near-full 2027 order book imply for volume growth?

A: Management said demand has been robust and the business is shifting to more sales outside North America with two new products (eGenforce and the 40 and 40 MX) launching. Most capacity investments were to ramp those two products, they have good line of sight into 2027 with room for more volume, and they cited a large BAE Hägglunds order of over $250 million in revenue.

"From a capacity standpoint, most of the investments have been to be positioned to ramp up those 2 products." — G. Frederick Bohley (COO)

off-highway Q4 margin step-up

Q (Tami Zakaria · JPMorgan): How much does Off-Highway EBITDA margin usually step up in Q4 versus Q3? Is it similar to H1 levels or between Q3 and H1?

A: Management said Q3 is typically their weakest quarter because much of the business is in Europe, Q2 is typically the strongest, and Q4 is between Q3 and Q2. They said they would naturally see a step up in Q4 driven predominantly by increased volume.

"So we would naturally see a step up that is predominantly due to that increase in that in that volume." — Craig Price

AI-generated notes on the earnings call transcript. Quotes are taken from the transcript. This is not a FolioObs investment view.

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