Oct 28, 2026 earnings call — Raised full-year EPS after record quarter
AerCap raised full year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $20.70 per share.
Revenue $2.4B (est $2.2B) · EPS $6.56 (est $4.56)
Key quotes
"During the third quarter, we sold 70 owned assets for $1.1 billion of sales proceeds at an unlevered gain on sale margin of 45%, equivalent to 2.6 times book equity."
"We continued to return significant capital to shareholders in the third quarter, repurchasing $783 million worth of shares and just over $2.2 billion year-to-date, representing approximately 10% of AerCap's outstanding shares at the beginning of the year."
"In many instances, this type of backdrop can create opportunities for AerCap, such as through incremental sale and leaseback activities."
Analyst Q&A 11
asset values and leverage policy
Q (Jamie Baker · JPMorgan): The analyst asked whether mid-life aircraft values and lease rates have peaked and which view management agrees with. He also asked if AerCap would tighten its leverage target from 2.7x to 2.5x and pursue a stronger low A rating.
A: AerCap said its sales this quarter show the assets they own are well positioned for the future and that their long-term portfolio work guides selling decisions. Management said their stated leverage target remains 2.7x, they have been running below it around 2x due to strong earnings, and they expect leverage to increase going forward.
"We are highly confident that the assets we have are very well positioned for the future, and that is evidenced by the results that you see this quarter, and in fact, pretty much every quarter for a long time." — Aengus Kelly (CEO)
capex and asset sales plans
Q (Moshe Orenbuch · TD Cowen): The analyst asked how AerCap thinks about CapEx over the next two years given the order book and potential opportunities. He also asked for a way to think about what percentage of the fleet could be subject to sales into 2027.
A: Pete gave cash CapEx guidance: about $1.5 billion for the rest of this year, around $6 billion in 2026, and maybe $5.5 billion in 2027. Management said sales have been elevated partly to reduce China exposure and that they expect sales to normalize toward a more typical $2.5 billion-$3 billion range, though this year they expect over $5 billion of sales.
"If we look at CapEx for fourth quarter, cash CapEx should be around $1.5 billion for the rest of this year, and then 2026, around $6 billion, 2027, maybe $5.5 billion or so." — Pete Juhas (CFO)
fuel impact on lease rates and engines
Q (Shannon Doherty · Deutsche Bank): The analyst asked which assets are most impacted by high fuel and whether constrained supply could push lease rates higher. He also asked if spare engine values could fall because many narrowbodies are being parted out.
A: Management said lease rates are more a function of interest rates and that leases in the next two years will move with interest rates. They said AerCap focuses on new tech, freight, and engines and expects sustained engine demand; improvements in time on wing in harsh environments are unlikely to materially reduce demand for new tech engines.
"I'd say, Shannon, where lease rates go is more a function of interest rates." — Aengus Kelly (CEO)
retirements and maintenance revenue outlook
Q (Ron Epstein · BofA): The analyst asked whether there will be a tidal wave of aircraft retirements next year and how that would affect AerCap. He also asked why maintenance revenues less leasing expenses are expected to be around $50 million annualized.
A: Management said they do not expect a tidal wave of retirements, especially in widebodies, and noted widebody demand is very strong while some narrowbody retirements could happen if oil stays high. Pete said $50 million is the long-term expectation for net technical contribution per quarter; this year was higher due to large end-of-lease payments on older assets, higher buyout income, and lease terminations releasing maintenance reserves, and they expect normalization over time.
"Well, Ron, that's normally what we would expect over the long term to be around that number, $50 million." — Pete Juhas (CFO)
airline stress and aeroderivative engines
Q (John Godyn · Citi): The analyst asked for a global update on airline financial distress if fuel stays high and which airlines are most at risk. He also asked about AerCap's thinking on aeroderivative engines for power demand.
A: Management said distress is more linked to an airline's product; low-fare, long-haul carriers are more pressured while many airlines can pass on some fuel costs. On aeroderivatives, AerCap has studied it for about 10 months, noted the high cost and need for durable demand and the right partners, and said they are selling engines to those entering the aeroderivative market but are unsure if current premiums will persist years out.
"There is a number of factors involved, as I referenced before, the longevity of demand, which is vital because it is a very expensive thing to do." — Aengus Kelly (CEO)
reasons for high asset sales
Q (Catherine O'Brien · Goldman Sachs): The analyst asked whether the recent elevated asset sales were driven by portfolio management or by trying to cash in on gain-on-sale margins, and how to think about future sale levels. She also asked if fleet plans are shifting with higher-for-longer fuel prices.
A: Management said sales are driven by long-term strategic portfolio goals, not by chasing gain on sale, and noted sales were elevated partly due to reducing China exposure. Pete added margins bounce quarter to quarter and this quarter saw strong gains on sale across engines and mid-life assets; on fleet plans, AerCap said new tech and freight demand remains robust and reduced flying of inefficient assets would have limited impact on AerCap's mostly newer-asset portfolio.
"This is where the portfolio is driving towards, and these are the assets we're selling." — Aengus Kelly (CEO)
leverage floor and net spread outlook
Q (Terry Ma · Barclays): The analyst asked if there is a practical floor for leverage the company won't go below if results keep outperforming, and how to think about buybacks. He also asked for the near-term outlook for net spread.
A: Management said they do not expect to fall below the current leverage ratio and will weigh buybacks versus buying assets based on opportunities. Pete said the net spread was 8.1% this quarter, has been between 8% and 8.1% recently, and he expects it to stay about that level for the next couple of quarters with modest upward movement over time as certain leases roll off and assets return.
"I'd expect it to stay about that level for the next couple of quarters." — Pete Juhas (CFO)
Max 10 impact and expense drivers
Q (Jason Holcomb · Morgan Stanley): The analyst asked whether Max 10 certification will change competitive dynamics between Airbus and Boeing and improve demand for the Max family. He also asked why leasing expenses and SG&A have been lower than expected this year.
A: Management said certification is important but the key is getting the Max 10 delivered into service at scale over the next four to five years to affect competitiveness with the A321. Pete said lower leasing expenses were mainly due to maintenance events being pushed into 2027, which reduced leasing expense this year and should move maintenance net contribution back toward around $50 million per quarter next year.
"The next step, though, to actually realize that competitiveness is to start delivering the aircraft and in some scale." — Aengus Kelly (CEO)
sale-leasebacks and portfolio barbell
Q (Chris Stathoulopoulos · SIG): The analyst asked for more detail on sale-leaseback opportunities if fuel stays high and how AerCap's barbell portfolio strategy holds up in that scenario between old and new technology assets.
A: Management said they monitor opportunities and work with customers to help balance sheets, and discussions may pick up in the new year though any deals must meet shareholder return thresholds. On the barbell, AerCap said they focus on new tech assets and older assets near end of life with low carrying values and can monetize older assets through their engine and parts businesses, so they do not see it as a material threat.
"So end-of-run assets you've had to avoid at all costs." — Aengus Kelly (CEO)
sale-leaseback timing and lease benchmarks
Q (Arren Cyganovich · Truist): The analyst asked how long before sale-leaseback opportunities would present themselves given AerCap's view of airline health. He also asked which interest rate benchmarks lease rates in AerCap's forward contracts are tied to.
A: Management said discussions with customers on sale-leasebacks are ongoing and may intensify in the new year, but any deals must meet return thresholds for shareholders. They said lease rates are for the most part tied to seven-year SOFR, sometimes to a treasury rate, because seven-year SOFR matches the average duration of their lease book and debt.
"For the most part, it is the seven-year SOFR." — Aengus Kelly (CEO)
widebody orders and escalation caps
Q (Doug Runte · Deutsche Bank): The analyst asked why lessors' share of the widebody passenger backlog is so low and whether sale-leasebacks or larger speculative orders are the right way to add widebodies. He also asked how far out is too far to place speculative orders given escalation cap availability.
A: Management said they wished they had bought more widebodies earlier and that recent top-ups were chosen based on deal economics and escalation conditions. On timing and escalation protection, AerCap said it depends on the escalation protection you get and that without a true cap, going out into the 2030s would be a challenge.
"If you don't really have a true cap, then I think going out into the 2030s, 2033, 2034, 2035, it would be a challenge, I think." — Aengus Kelly (CEO)