Aug 4, 2026 earnings call — EPS outlook raised on biofuels and Nutrition
ADM raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $5.15 to $5.60, after reporting adjusted EPS of $1.84.
Revenue $22.7B (est $22.7B) · EPS $1.84 (est $1.42)
Key quotes
"For the Crushing subsegment, operating profit was $363 million for the quarter, an increase of approximately $330 million from the prior year quarter as the business performed well in a constructive biofuels margin environment."
"Flavors sales grew across every key region with particular strength in EMEA, and we delivered a record quarter for Flavors in Asia Pacific."
"Given the strength of biofuel demand, we have identified 4 U.S. crush facilities for this first phase of expansion, which together are expected to deliver a meaningful increase in our North American capacity."
Analyst Q&A 7
expanding existing plants vs new builds
Q (Manav Gupta · UBS): Analyst asked why the company is choosing to debottleneck existing plants instead of building new greenfield plants and how that affects returns. He also asked for details on the Broadwing decarbonization project.
A: Management said brownfield debottlenecks cost far less than greenfield builds, so returns are materially higher. They plan a phased approach, announced four of ten plant unlocks so far, and said Broadwing will bring low-carbon energy and steam to Decatur as part of a multi-year decarbonization program.
"When we look at the overall portfolio, the capital intensity is about 1/4 of what it will cost to build greenfield." — Juan Luciano (CEO·CHAIR)
ag services outlook and veg oil margins
Q (Heather Jones · Heather Jones): Analyst asked if Q2 was the high point for Ag Services given global tensions and China buying, and asked about refining margins for vegetable oils and outlook under biofuel policies.
A: Management said their Ag Services team benefits from the company's footprint and flexibility and that China continues to buy U.S. soybeans, supporting exports. On vegetable oils and biofuels, they said total margins are constructive despite a Q2 negative mark-to-market, and they expect those mark-to-markets to reverse into Q3 and Q4 while watching many market factors.
"So I would say China continues to buy from the U.S." — Juan Luciano (CEO·CHAIR)
drivers for hitting guidance range
Q (Benjamin Theurer · Barclays): Analyst asked what would push results to the high end versus low end of the new guidance, and how 2027 might look. He also asked about timing and customer adoption for natural colors.
A: Management said hitting the high end depends on continued strong execution, favorable biofuels margins, and continued China buying supporting Ag Services. They noted crush coverage levels for Q3 and Q4 and said Nutrition margins and ethanol strength help; on natural colors, they said replacements take time, customers will sequence rollouts, and the opportunity could give $80 million to $100 million of operating profit over a few years.
"So if you think about what will drive us to the higher side of the range, I think our assumptions are that Ag Services benefits from China continued buying from North America soybeans." — Juan Luciano (CEO·CHAIR)
crush coverage and guidance detail
Q (Pooran Sharma · Stephens): Analyst asked for assumed crush margin levels behind the back-half guide and confirmed the stated coverage levels for Q3 and Q4.
A: Management confirmed the coverage numbers: North America crush is 90% covered for Q3 and about 30% for Q4, and globally they are about 70% covered for Q3 and a bit lower for Q4. They reiterated that the guidance assumes a constructive biofuels market and that Q3 may be higher than Q4 depending on where Q4 crush margins get locked in.
"Globally, we are more like a 70% covered for Q3 and a little bit lower for Q4." — Juan Luciano (CEO·CHAIR)
45Z carbon credits and Nutrition growth
Q (Andrew Strelzik · BMO): Analyst asked what is driving the higher 45Z outlook and how to think about durable growth in Human Nutrition beyond colors.
A: Management said they raised the full-year 45Z expectation from 150 to 250 as they gain visibility on verification and operational changes across ethanol plants. For Human Nutrition they pointed to faster growth in flavors in Asia, improving specialty ingredients and emulsifiers, interest in postbiotics and fiber, and said flavors should grow mid-single-digit over the medium term.
"On 45Z, as I said, we are increasing our full year expectation from 150 to 250." — Juan Luciano (CEO·CHAIR)
precision fermentation and insurance proceeds
Q (Steven Haynes · Morgan Stanley): Analyst asked how precision fermentation fits with the natural colors opportunity and timing for potential profit uplift. He also asked about any insurance proceeds in the quarter.
A: Management said they view precision fermentation as a strategic platform that complements their fermentation, dextrose supply, and unused fermenters; they have two demonstration projects for egg replacement and pet lamb and will launch at least one natural color via precision fermentation. They also confirmed $20 million of insurance proceeds for Decatur East showed up in the AS&O segment and said they are working with insurers on any additional proceeds.
"We are believers that from a food perspective, at the end of the day, in order to feed 10 billion people in the planet, we will have to feed ourselves with animal proteins, with vegetable proteins and with microbial-based protein." — Juan Luciano (CEO·CHAIR)
starches demand stabilizing
Q (Matthew Blair · TPH): Analyst asked if starch demand is stabilizing and which end markets are improving, such as cardboard or beer.
A: Management said the starch market is stabilizing and that industrial end uses like card boxes and packaging are improving, which helps offset softness in liquid sweeteners. They highlighted growth in biosolutions and nonfood uses of corn derivatives as a resilience source for the business.
"Yes, we see stabilization in the starch market." — Juan Luciano (CEO·CHAIR)