Oct 28, 2026 earnings call — Strong underwriting and heavy share buybacks
Arch returned approximately $1.4 billion to common shareholders through buybacks in the quarter.
Revenue $4.7B (est $4.1B) · EPS $2.67 (est $2.31)
Key quotes
"we took advantage of an attractive share price to repurchase 14.8 million of our common shares at an aggregate cost of $1.4 billion in the quarter."
"We continue to act on what we see, growing where returns remain attractive and exercising restraint where they do not."
"In USMI, favorable reserve development has moderated from prior years, while positive homeowner credit conditions continue to support a low delinquency rate of 2.2% at September 30th."
Analyst Q&A 16
Buybacks and insurance growth
Q (Elyse Greenspan · Wells Fargo): Analyst asked how they balance buybacks versus M&A and requested buyback update for October; also asked how underlying insurance growth will trend into 2027.
A: Management said they bought about $100 million of shares in October and that their capital position is strong. They said they expect to return more capital if growth remains difficult, and they see opportunities to grow in casualty and middle-market insurance versus 2026.
"Through last night, we bought back just about another $100 million of buybacks in October." — François Morin
OpEx ratio and mortgage insurance rule changes
Q (Pablo Singzon · JPMorgan): Analyst asked how operating expense ratio may trend next year given premium pressure and Bermuda tax credits, and then asked how a pilot on MI cancellations affects the mortgage insurance business.
A: Management said Bermuda QRTCs are sustainable and expected to increase in 2027, and that expense duplication from integration is mostly behind them so expense ratios could come down. They said the MI pilot is for new mortgages and will take time to implement, so they see no near-term impact and view mortgage insurance as a strong business supporting homeownership.
"So it's sustainable." — François Morin
International and reinsurance capital
Q (Alex Scott · Barclays): Analyst asked about international growth risks and loss experience, especially related to the Middle East, and about private capital entering reinsurance and property.
A: Management said they tread carefully in the Middle East but view current activity as an opportunity and are supporting insureds. They said third-party capital is useful and provides lower-cost capacity, helpful for solutions, though casualty reinsurance using it is newer and raises questions about who holds tail risk.
"I think we tread carefully in that region, but we also want to support the insured." — Nicolas Papadopoulo
Impact of marine war premiums and reinsurance OpEx
Q (Cave Montazeri · Deutsche Bank): Analyst asked how much marine war risk premiums boosted the insurance accident-year ex-cat loss ratio and also about drivers of reinsurance operating expense improvement.
A: Management said the marine war premiums accounted for most of the improvement and pointed to premium flows in international short-tail and property specialty. They added reinsurance OpEx improvement partly reflects profit commissions tied to third-party capital and that a normalized CAT year could reduce profit commissions.
"There was most of the improvement." — François Morin
Casualty growth and pricing
Q (Andrew Kligerman · TD Cowen): Analyst asked where growth opportunities are in casualty across insurance and reinsurance and what is happening to rates, terms, and conditions.
A: Management said insurance casualty growth opportunities are clearer—E&S casualty and specialty like construction and middle-market where they have data and expertise. On reinsurance, terms and conditions are less attractive due to abundant smaller players and third-party capital; primary casualty rates are decelerating but roughly tracking loss trend.
"Primary casualty rates have been decelerating, but they are still about loss trend." — Nicolas Papadopoulo
Excess capital and Bermuda tax credit
Q (Josh Shanker · BofA): Analyst asked how big their excess capital cushion is and how the Bermuda tax credit factors into capital availability and ratings.
A: Management declined to give a specific excess-capital number but said they have accumulated excess capital and will return it prudently if not needed for the business; they run analyses with and without the Bermuda DTA because its future is uncertain. They said discussions with Bermuda government and OECD are ongoing with no new developments.
"For us, it is important to run scenarios or run models both ways." — François Morin
MI risk in pre-2023 loans and buyback slowdown
Q (Rowland Mayor · RBC): Analyst asked how much capital backs pre-2023 loans with big home price gains and why buybacks slowed in fourth quarter to date.
A: Management said about 25% of their risk-in-force is pre-2023 and pointed to the supplement for detailed risk-in-force by year; they noted the executive order is prospective and not a current concern. On buybacks they said slowdown reflected factors like being in a blackout and limits of their 10b5-1 plan, so daily variation should not be over-interpreted.
"Call it 25% of the risk in force." — François Morin
Reinsurance growth and casualty outlook
Q (David Motemaden · Evercore): Analyst asked for views on reinsurance growth and how 1/1 property cat renewals look, and whether casualty pricing narrowing could force pullbacks.
A: Management said they don't give guidance but expect pressure on short-tail catastrophe and property reinsurance which is a large part of their book, and that rates are under pressure after a light CAT year. They said casualty margins for the business they write remain attractive and they see a run rate to continue finding that business worthwhile.
"Clearly, we expect some continued pressure on the short-tail book, catastrophe, excess of loss, and other property." — Nicolas Papadopoulo
Debt-funded buybacks and cycle management
Q (Tracy Benguigui · Wolfe): Analyst asked if recent buybacks were debt-funded and how negative marks affect capital returns; also how Arch will manage through a soft cycle.
A: Management said about $1.1 billion of the June debt raise was incremental and supported buybacks, but their debt-to-capital remains very low and a $500 million maturing note will reduce leverage further. They said on reinsurance they will manage the net portfolio with third-party capital and on insurance they will be laser-focused, targeting the worst parts of each portfolio rather than broad non-renewals.
"Our debt to capital ratio is still very low." — François Morin
Conflict premiums and admitted market shift
Q (Brian Meredith · UBS): Analyst asked whether conflict-related marine premiums will continue into Q4 and whether movement from non-admitted to admitted markets is happening and its impact.
A: Management said similar marine conflict premiums should continue into the fourth quarter and that the business is attractively priced though risky and written carefully. They said they hear anecdotal evidence of business moving to admitted markets which can hurt their E&S franchise, and they typically won't pick up those risks on the retail side to avoid channel conflict.
"No, you should absolutely expect similar levels in the fourth quarter." — François Morin
Iran conflict losses and capital returns
Q (Sid Ganju · Morgan Stanley): Analyst asked for premium and cat loss dollar amounts related to the Iran conflict and whether they'll accelerate buybacks or do a special dividend.
A: Management said Iran-related losses were much less than the roughly $230 million of cat losses and that they do not disclose event-level loss amounts; they pointed to the supplement for premium volumes in international short-tail property. On capital returns they prefer share buybacks given the stock price and will determine pace based on market conditions.
"We do not disclose individual numbers by event." — François Morin
Data center opportunity and reinsurance margins
Q (Mike Zaremski · BMO): Analyst asked if data center premiums represent a large opportunity and where their E&S casualty efforts focus; also if reinsurance underlying loss ratios will drift up.
A: Management said industry estimates of about $10 billion of new data center premiums sound right but it's not material for them; they write data center through London and construction teams. Their E&S casualty focus is middle-market accounts with premiums in the hundreds of thousands. They expect reinsurance underlying loss ratios to gradually increase as rates decline.
"For us, it is an opportunity, but it is not a big opportunity." — Nicolas Papadopoulo
Corporate expense and rate effects on short-tail losses
Q (Meyer Shields · KBW): Analyst asked why corporate expense was only $22 million this quarter and whether rising rates affect short-tail loss trends.
A: Management said the QRTCs in Q3 drove the low corporate expense number versus Q3 2025 and that those credits are sustainable. They said rising rates are neutral for short-tail loss trends over time because sums insured should be adjusted for inflation, though transition periods may require catch-up adjustments.
"The big item this quarter was definitely QRTCs, and again, that's sustainable." — François Morin
Coface equity investment
Q (Chris Hartwell · Autonomous): Analyst asked their view on the Coface investment after recent news and how important the relationship is.
A: Management said they love the Coface investment, it has performed well, and they have confidence in its management team and strategy; they view it as a top-notch credit insurer and are very happy with the results. They described it as a quarter share in a strong credit insurer, and the investment has been terrific.
"It is very important." — Nicolas Papadopoulo
France riots exposure and casualty appetite
Q (Yaron Kinar · Mizuho): Analyst asked if riots in France will drive industry losses for Arch and why Arch still likes casualty reinsurance compared to peers.
A: Management said the riots are de minimis for the industry and Arch and they would not expect material fourth-quarter losses. They said their casualty appetite reflects better loss experience versus competitors and that their loss picks have not deteriorated, giving them confidence in their terms and conditions.
"For us, yeah, and the industry as well, I think our understanding is it's de minimis." — François Morin
Insurance loss ratio drivers
Q (David Motemaden · Evercore): Analyst asked whether the year-on-year insurance loss ratio improvement was mainly from Iran-related premiums or other mix factors.
A: Management said look at trailing 12 months to smooth quarter noise and that quarterly fluctuations can be influenced by individual claims; after adjustments their 12-month view is generally flat versus a year ago and they believe underwriting actions position ex-cat accident-year loss ratios in the right direction for 2027.
"We would steer you to look at trailing 12 months." — François Morin